Diamondhacks

Phoenix 'Small Market', Per Derrick Hall

2011-10-16T23:55:00.000-07:00

Gem from Thursday's CEO Chat:

Derrick Hall: We are defined as a small market based on pricing and revenues. The larger markets have the greater revenues, and thus the larger payrolls. Despite our population, we are defined as a small market club.

A characteristically deft and misleading statement. Let's break it down:

We are defined as a small market based on pricing and revenues.
No. The Diamondbacks are more accurately defined as a small franchise, by way of discretionary spending and a thinly veiled corporate disregard for what customers actually want. Resulting gate revenue is a nexus of market and how artfully Hall's tiered prices enable and drive customer utility, which evidenced by a perennially half empty stadium, isnt too artful.

By contrast, the adjacent Suns levy some of the NBA's higher prices, and regularly realize above average attendance (and corresponding revenues). Only eight NFL teams charge less than the Cardinals' $87.58 average ticket, yet the Cards have sold out (99%+ capacity) five consecutive seasons (2006-10). Even our newly challenged "little" baseball franchise on Jefferson exceeded NL average attendance seven consecutive years - under previous ownership - but has mysteriously lagged league average draw for seven straight years under Mr Kendrick.

This isnt to suggest Phoenix is a notable hotbed of rabid fandom, but rather to expose Hall's contrary implication that daunting demographics or economics resign Phoenix sports franchises to an inevitable consequence of half empty stadiums and measly revenue.

Market size is best defined by market size. Refining it with per capita income to better approximate potential market demand, is appropriate. And assuming that the recession eats into ticket sales sounds reasonable. But to imply that some overarching theoretical market ceiling, looming over local sports demand, is inevitably or primarily responsible for the Dbacks' actual and specific "small market" revenues is a deductive fallacy that smacks of artifice.

For years, Hall has spread a narrative that his front office is "doing everything right" off the field, despite the club's poorest extended attendance record coinciding with his leadership. Blame for spotty attendance is lobbed anywhere but there. First he blamed baseball ops for not winning enough games. Then when Byrnes won the most games in baseball between 2007 and early 2008 and still didnt draw much, Hall implicated Jerry Colangelo for the franchise's "lack of identity and continuity". In March 2008, I sat in Hall's office where he posited that this "lack of identity" went back four or five years, which is amusing given five years prior to our meeting, Colangelo's Dbacks were coming off a 98 win playoff season witnessed by 3.2 million paying fans. Or just a tick under 40 thousand per game.

By 2009, excuses planted by Hall and his broadcasting minions about local fans not grasping the game's competitive vicissitudes, or appreciating his efforts to build a "championship style team" under AJ Hinch, were well established. When that narrative died on the vine, he started blaming "the economy". When the team "on the field" inexplicably won another title in 2011 and Hall still drew barely 2 million, now apparently we're a "small market" in "the economy". Who knew.

The unaccountable logic Hall is trying to pass off is the same code language he's crafted for years, and it's the same con game Bud Selig and his daughter tried to pass off in Milwaukee for two decades:

Fans arent coming to our games, but it's not our fault.

It's somebody else's fault.

Yeah, we own the business and set the prices and provide the entertainment, but it's basically the people's fault.

The fans. Customers. The market.

Believe me, we're doing everything humanly possible to attract fans to the ballpark. I dont honestly see how another owner could do more under these circumstances.

Until a Jerry Colangelo or Mark Attanasio or Mark Cuban comes along. Someone who delivers reliable value instead of insisting that a market respond to empty embellishments.

The larger markets have the greater revenues, and thus the larger payrolls. Despite our population, we are defined as a small market club.

For now, I wont quibble with the payroll chain of reasoning because there's something more subtle and interesting here.... and quintesentially Hall. Notice how more lucrative markets are described rather expansively - he doesnt say "large" markets, which tends to limit our focus to behemoths like New York, Chicago and Los Angeles. He says "larger" markets, with "greater" revenues. He's trying to evoke as many markets over Phoenix as possible. Which is fine, until....

...he abandons that rhetorical standard by repeatedly labeling Phoenix as a "small" market. Not "small-er". Not slightly below average. Not ahead of eleven (count em, eleven) franchises in 2010 revenue. And god forbid! Not "middle third". No, no, no. Dont you see? We're just "small". You know, like Pittsburgh and Florida and so on. Poor "small" us. There are, apparently, no "mid market" franchises in Derrick Hall's breezily manipulative lexicon. Only "larger" and....

"Small".

One irony of this 'deft' salesmanship, of course, is that Mr Hall, Chief Information Operator, has now presided over five of the seven lowest attended campaigns in franchise history. So he's intimately familiar with the concept of small, even if he cheerfully refuses to own up to it.

A final irony, perhaps, is while Mr Hall toasts 2011 by deflecting responsibility for subpar attendance with "small market" fabrications, his effective predecessor, Colangelo, began selling millions more baseball tickets fifteen years ago, in a market housing 36% fewer residents than today. That's about one and a half million fewer people Valleywide. To put that gap in some perspective, one and a half million is the current population of Phoenix proper - the nation's fifth most populous city. Or Milwaukee's entire metro.

Surely and Slyly

2011-10-10T00:08:00.001-07:00

Suppose I need to say something, if for no other reason than to finesse Derrick's prostate off my front page. While others confirm our brick red battalion lost an evenly matched NLDS, and before that, won an awful lot, and generally seem pretty happy about it, I'm disillusioned. Not with the club or Gibby or even with Nyjer "Not So Lovely" Morgan. I've lost confidence and trust in Major League Baseball, specificially its arbitration of balls and strikes.

Before you assume I'm a misguided poor sport, let me assert that the Diamondbacks were robbed in Milwaukee, as surely as Jesse James robbed banks and as slyly as banks robbed this country. And the disturbing part is, these games really were pretty well adjudicated, by MLB standards. At least to the naked eye. So well, in fact, that no one to my knowledge is complaining about it.

But thanks to TBS displaying PitchTrax in an offset window throughout the series, we were able to track the subtle shenanigans of just how one sided umpiring has become. To the naked eye, Game 5 started really well. Unlike Game 1, when Gallardo was visibly gifted with called strikes on the bottom edge that were consistently denied IPK, the Dbacks patiently took many close pitches just off the plate - and the umpire here was resolute before the din of the Milwaukee throng.  He called one outside pitch on Hill a strike, early in the count, but other than that was rock solid.  The Dbacks worked Yovanni's pitch count and the home crowd was not pleased.

When IPK took the hill, it was clear from PitchTrax that he was painting the edges of the zone better, or at least more aggressively, than Gallardo. IPK was, for the most part, throwing strikes, towards the edges, whereas Gallardo tended to miss one, two or three inches off the outside corner. The umpiring accurately reflected that.

Things fell apart, though, during Justin Upton's second AB in the third inning. The first two pitches were clearly outside to Arizona's most celebrated hitter - yet both were called strikes. Neither was an "edge" location that could be called "either way", less so given the pretty tight zone established over the frst couple innings. So instead of 2-0 to your 30 home run dude, it's 0-2 against a strikeout pitcher. Yovanni preceded with care and Upton worked the count. Justin then got his team's biggest gift, when a high but clear strike on PitchTrax was missed by the ump, and JU later lofted a solo home run in the at bat.

There were three umpire errors in that one PA. Brewer fans were understandably ticked by the missed strike, but the whole AB was messed up and the fact is most of the breaks in it went the Brewers way.

It got worse after the Dbacks took the 1-0 lead on the road. By midgame, I'd tallied eight or nine gifts for Gallardo, one for Kennedy and the one for Upton. Saito relieved and got a couple calls. But the worst was Frankie Rodriguez, who transformed his appropriately French-named battery mate, LeCroy, into an NHL goalie, with an assortment of 55 foot sliders, jerked fastballs soaring over the opposite batters' box and what may have been a couple wrist shots.

After Aaron Hill led off with a walk and Upton took a pair of balls nowhere near the plate, F-Raud was presented with a strike two or three inches outside, per Pitchtrax. It's one thing when you give a pitcher a 2-0 strike when he's more or less hitting spots or if you've established a wide zone for both sides, but neither applied here. No Diamondback pitcher got that call, let alone anyone that wild, begging the question if Frankie's uniform influenced the call. Milwaukee's setup showman followed up with terrific 2-1 slider, eventually whiffing Upton and the Dbacks failed to score, despite a Montero single and a couple walks in the inning.

We'll never know what would've happened if Upton went to 3-0, late in a pressure game with men on, but as this whole series, and particularly the finale, was so evenly contested, one cant help but wonder if one team getting a dozen or more 'breaks' and the other receiving three or four didnt effect the overall outcome.

The big takeaway isnt that Milwaukee got breaks at home. Or any implication their sterling record at Miller Park is more or less tainted than other home marks. And to be fair, I didnt see Pitch Trax for the games at Chase, because I attended both - who knows what transpired, on and off the corners, those nights. The revelation, for me, was the size of the discrepancy between what my naked eye told me was the extent of favoritism - and what PitchTrax objectively exposed it as.

When I say objectively, I dont mean objective balls and strikes. The grid is just a superimposed image over the plate and can be positioned poorly, as in the DET/NYY NLDS, where fastballs in the dirt regularly registered as low strikes on PitchTrax .  I mean that PitchTrax objectively exposed identical pitch locations that were assigned different values by the umpire, and those values correlated quite a bit with the pitcher's uniform. It doesnt really matter if individual pitches were in or out of a "true" zone. What matters is that identical pitch locations were called inconsistently, and that the inconsistency appears somewhat predictable (ie not random).

That's what PitchTrax helps clarify and quantify. Without it, you'd watch a game and say, geez that "looked" a little outside and that pitch looked "about the same" as the one the ump called differently earlier. You get a sense one team's being favored, but you're not sure. Especially on the plethora of borderline pitches, where good teams and pitchers live.

Until Frankie Rodriguez waltzed into the eighth, the naked eye (along with ambient crowd noise) told me this was a well officiated zone, if anything favoring the Diamondbacks. Gallardo's pitch count was up. The crowd was mad about a bunch of called balls from Gallardo that looked close. The pitch before Upton's homer looked darn good. Ian Kennedy didnt struggle much with balls and strikes. A few called strikes to Dbacks looked a little outside, so overall it looked pretty even handed to the naked eye, after discounting the crowd's wrath.  Certainly not a home job, as in Game 1 or the Dbacks final visit to AT&T Park.  But PitchTrax still exposed a litany of more subtle discrepancies that generally favored the home team.

Concerns are obvious. A decade ago, people snickered at the thought NBA games were "fixed", but now we know better. The potential financial benefit to any league ensuring home teams win as often as possible is large.  Local fans have a good time and return. The well established disparity between NBA home and away records is alarming, to a point where home status has a higher correlation with game outcome than the relative strengths of the teams. Baseball, where the relative strengths of starting pitchers often drive daily results, tends to mitigate this home/away effect.

But I wonder if it's getting worse. I'll have to look into that. We know from steroid and free agent history that baseball's barons slyly collude at the expense of competition on the field, and it might be in their perceived (and notoriously shortsighted) interests to once again do so. Make every home team a "winner". Fans will surely love it.

Oh, and congratulations, Milwaukee.

Hall Mulls Elective Surgery, Dbacks Clinch

2011-09-25T00:15:00.000-07:00

Dbacks CEO and Chief Information Operator, Derrick Hall, declared in a declared press conference that he has declarative early stage (I or II) prostate cancer and is "thinking about" a November surgery to remove the malignancy.

The five year survival rate for most prostate cancers (including Stage III and many Stage IV diagnoses where cancer has spread to nearby tissue) is nearly 100%. The ten year survival rate, which includes these later stage, regional malignancies, and reflects higher historical mortality due to subsequent medical advances, is 91%. Most diagnosed prostate cancers, however, are Stage I or II and Hall's is presumed to be such. If so, his mortality prognosis is essentially the same as a 46 year old male with no cancer at all.

In other news, his players won the NL West.

Ryan Roberts, above

Amazin' ???

2011-09-09T14:08:00.000-07:00

AMAZIN'

CAST

Gerry Grote.....portrayed by......Miguel Montero

Donn Clendenon.....Paul Goldschmidt

Ken Boswell.....Aaron Hill

Bud Harrelson......John McDonald

Ed Charles.......Sean Burroughs

Cleon Jones....Justin Upton

Tommie Agee.....Chris Young

Ron Swoboda.....Gerardo Parra

Ed Kranepool.......Lyle Overbay

-featuring-

Tom Seaver......Ian Kennedy

Jerry Koosman......Daniel Hudson

Tug McGraw....JJ Putz

-and introducing -

Josh Collmentor as Don Cardwell

-and-

David Hernandez as "The Young Nolan Ryan"

Watch the trailer of the 1969 film on which the play is based.

Young Man River

2011-06-19T12:29:00.016-07:00

This Father's Day may be an apt historical marker for Phoenix ballfans to finally acknowledge that Justin Upton's our daddy. The four year, hyped wait appears just about over for our oft-maligned superstar-in-training.

It's not just the result that he's smashing .434 over the past twenty games, thrusting the not quite 24 year old among seasonal NL leaders. It's the visibly obvious, long wished for process leading up to the result that's so exciting.

It's the swing, Stupid.

Excuse me. "Daddy."

He's shortened his swing, especially with two strikes, reaping ridiculous results. Pundits claim he is quicker to the ball, and he seems to be using that extra "time" to both select and square up better pitches to hit. Ironically, "being quicker and shorter" means he's pulling the ball less than ever. Everything's left center/right center, except for an occasional sharp grounder in the shortstop hole.

He's spoiling tough two strike pitches, that used to march him back to the dugout.   It seemed as if Justin worked a lot of full counts, but then often came up empty with big overanxious swings. He's now earning more pitches, by fighting off foul tips and eventually "settling" for line drives and singles.

He's shortened up on the back end too. His follow through was notable for tremendous upper bod twist and torque. Now, it almost looks like a relaxed, more compact check swing, dare I speak it - "lazy" - like he's just tapping the ball. It visually reminds me of the way Luis Gonzalez tapped his way to 57 home runs in 2001.

Justin is hitting just about everything on the button, which further incents pitchers to spot with care - and get behind. He is no longer one of the guys in this lineup. He has emerged as The Man, the daily center of attention in the box, who rival managers and pitchers wake up with on their minds and with sweat on their brow.

This metamorphosis doesnt just get fools off his back and bolster clubhouse morale.  The transformation from one of too many big swinging 'sluggers' to a line drive-spitting OBP machine is precisely and objectively what this Kegger batting order Kraves. Josh Byrnes' nuclear Kore has more untimely power surges than APS. It has always lacked a reliable, daily source of direct current and contact, more like the current of a river. Like SRP.  A river that stays within its banks and both steadies and propels this powerful team.

The Diamondacks arent quite as solid as they look and may be slowly dissolving as we speak. Justin Upton is stemming that tide. The fellas are finally floating on his muscular back, and we'll see how long he can keep them afloat.  He is not the Father of Waters, not yet, but has grown into a river and a man.

Young Man River. If this team sinks, it wont be his fault.

** Happy Fathers' Day

*** Justin Upton Poll >>>> top right

Ferdinand Fandungo

2011-06-05T13:30:00.004-07:00

After endless waiting, nagging doubts and discouraging false alarms, finally.
Finally! Someone broke the tie in our "Rename Melvin Mora" poll. Thank you!
Your choice:

Ferdinand Fandungo.

My choice was Solomon Salmone. Mora just looks like a Solomon someoneto me, but cherished readers have spoken. From now on, or as long as we feel like it, we'll refer to our ancient third sacker as ~~Solomon Salmone~~ Ferdie Fandungo.

*****
In other news, Kevin Towers' mesmerizing balancing act has defied logic, levski and low expectations, catapulting to the divisional lead on the magical trajectory of eighteen wins in three weeks. What's not to like?

Well, the schedule's been about as strong as Xavier Nady's arm, and pitching's been as sustainable as Charlie Sheen in a monastery. Chuck Nagy's nurtured a gaudy five pen men sporting sub-2 ERAs. Their low BABIPs wont collectively stand and may only be mitigated by tightening up the rotation's rear, which appears underway with the relative stabilization of Joe Saunders and swapping out Galarraga and Enright for Collmentor and Duke.

Batsmen currently stand third in NL runs, ahead of Philly, Colorado and Milwaukee, and it's encouraging there's at least some probable individual regression ahead in opposite directions. Even with inevitable dips,it's harder to envision this group in their collective primes falling, say, below NL average, than challenging towards the circuit's runs scored lead.

But how good, really, is this team? Any doofus can discern it's better than it's been the past two years. They're not going to lose 95 games. But that doesnt tell us how good they are, only how bad they're not. Just over a third of the way home, Arizona sports the NLW's best run differential. So this isnt exactly 2007, either.

But the looming, latent worry is the nexus of pitching and schedule. As Diamondback fans, we're excited to be leading as late as early June, but that's just late to us, given our recent history. There are almost twice as many games left to play, over 900 innings to be pitched, by a group almost sure to erode and decline, perhaps significantly. Collmentor, Paterson and Hernandez are way over their heads. Kennedy, Vasquez and Demel will be very hard pressed to sustain results to date. The closer is good but fragile. Of the entire staff, perhaps only Hudson can reasonably be expected to improve on his April and May.

The Diamondbacks may appear to be a contending MLB outfit, but are probably closer to an average/slightly below average squad, riding a crest of premature promise. Early hints of a mundane NL West may or may not roll all the way to September's shore, but an unexpectedly favorable early schedule followed by a more representative one, and anticipated random variation should prove to be as inexorable as the tides.

Mr Hacks Goes To Washington

2011-05-28T10:41:00.011-07:00

After a week visiting Washington, we submit Diamondhacks' State of the Union:

Regrettably, the Nation finds itself at war. Not with Islamofascists or methodical Chinese workers. The heart of our Republic, the one Frank Capra fictionalized, is under imminent threat from middle schoolers. From morn to midnight, this fructose addled horde swarms Mall museums and sticks to District monuments like lichen. We must mobilize to thwart this audible army of metallic teeth, in order to establish a more perfect union. Or at least relaxed Capitol vacations for the restuvus.

Here, at home, it's still unclear whether the All Star Roast is sold out, after a dozen days of "unbundled" opportunities, following two and a half months of sluggish strip sales, which followed private account purchases, so called "lotteries" and MLB's internal allotments. Ticketmaster "explains" seats are available, in fact I apparently have several "on hold" but they cant tell me where they are or how I can purchase them.

On the field, the Snakes are evolving from a hapless basement fixture to a respectable also ran. Our shortsighted, Sonoran version of the Algonquin round table is delirious. Through late May, runs scored are down 12% from last year, but runs yielded plunged more than 40%, sufficient to hiss and slither into the NL West's "place" position, between suddenly lame division favorites.

Speaking of "lame", "slither" and "hiss", Jim McLennan's trollish treatment of Buster Posey's career threatening injury reinforces a petty mindset and online tactics we've documented and disparaged for years. The Pit does some things well and hopefully this represents a last vestige of its founder's embittered insecurities. Kudos to some of his invested lieutenants for calling him out.

I favor the initiative to rid MLB of smokeless tobacco, but find Ken Kendrick's public health rationale characteristically selective. Like every owner, Kendrick reaps millions from volume pumping lucrative alcohol - a far broader threat to the general welfare than Skoal or Copenhagen. Unlike alcohol (the nation's largest contributor to youth deaths), Mr Kendrick isnt beholden to tobacco, and demonizing it poses zero risk to his portfolio. His selective zeal and parsed essay suggest that he's more passionate about marketing a squeaky clean - and largely illusory - image of players than he is with wholesale improvement in public health or safety.

Predictably amusing, also, how KK's moral justification for spending more than $2M on a baseball card casually inserts its way into his ostensible essay on health policy. Kendrick's reportedly tried to dump this card for years, but it's allegedly trimmed better than he is and worth a fraction of what he foolishly paid. All Star Weekend is, among other things, his shiny mega stage to broker the T-206 and sucker some equally undiscerning magnate to mercifully take it off his hands.

God Bless America !

*********************

Some DC Recommendations:

Old Ebbitt Grill - one block east of Barack's Place, bustling, historic, delicious, surprisingly affordable

National Gallery of Art - few if any showstopping masterpieces, but no glass or ropes either, and a breathtaking array of top artists. Look into the eyes of a Rembrandt or DaVinci, put your nose up to a Pollock, Picasso or Van Gogh. A still life of pears actually teared me up; just the startling proficiency, dedication and perfection of it, the practice of Man copying and honoring God (or Nature), and humbly accepting I'll never deliver anything close to that beatiful in my life.

Chesapeake & Ohio Canal (Georgetown) - just down the hill from the snooty college town, near the heavily wooded Potomac, is a narrow 19th century commerce canal with wooden locks, dirt bikepaths on either side, even occasional tours on boats pulled by mules. You can almost spit across the waterway...and it's 180 miles long !

Raku - ordinary sushi joint off Dupont Circle. Nothing fancy. If you like seafood and noodles, though, get the Pad Sew. About fourteen dollars. Sit outside on a Friday or Saturday night.

National Archives - the Charters of Freedom are faded, almost impossible to read. Do it just to say you did, but be sure to spend time at "lesser" exhibits, which are more engaging. Celebrity documents, historic photos...I watched a 1919 film loop of American workers spinning cotton and hand manufacturing catchers' mitts for fifteen minutes. It was mesmerizing and evocative, seeing New England girls, who might've known my grandmothers, in linen dresses and carpal tunnel wrist tape, crafting what "third world" workers do today.

Lincoln Memorial - as I get older, the monument moves me less than the resolute stream of world travelers, some aged, who trudge up its enormous steps day after day, decade after decade.

Vietnam Memorial - easily the best designed, most effective memorial I've ever seen. An inspired, stark synthesis of four or five deceptively simple elements that mesh to convey loss in a powerful yet dignified manner.

****
Oh, and will somebody please be my hero and break the tenacious tie in the interminable Melvin Mora poll (right)? We need a mandate here, people, and we need to move on.

Blogger Gets Down

2011-05-13T10:51:00.001-07:00

In the spirit of Friday the 13th, Blogspot crashed yesterday afternoon , and is in still in the process of restoring posts, comments and other functions. Accessing the blog for the first time in about 24 hours, I just placed the most recent post, about All Star Tickets, offline, until google hopefully restores the original comment thread. The one with several links about the 2010 Anaheim game.

In any case, I hope to add to that discussion by end of day (or night), before we were so rudely interrupted.

Baseball Pulls ASG Ticket Strips Off Market

2011-05-10T18:45:00.005-07:00

In what may signify historically soft demand, MLB has finally removed lagging All Star Weekend ticket strips from public sale. The strips, which include admission to the Home Run Derby, All Star Game and other events, went on sale March 1st, however after more than two months, Chase Field had still not sold out baseball's midsummer classic.

MLB is now abandoning traditional strips in favor of less expensive, unbundled event sales, beginning May 16th. Diamondhacks believes this concession may be unprecedented in modern All Star Game history, however that has yet to be confirmed.

Developing.....

Dbacks Get Down With Whitest Lip Synch Ever

2011-05-05T09:28:00.004-07:00

To be fair, there are slightly more people of color in this carefully choreographed Dbacks' come on than you'd find in respected American institutions, like the Mormon Tabernacle Choir or First Continental Congress.

But if this reflects organizational makeup, or worse, the way they choose to present themselves to a pluralistic twenty-first century American city, it's little wonder the Diamondbacks dont attract a healthy melting pot of fans, or that Justin Upton and Chris Young look so uncomfortable much of the time.

The FO's constantly chirping about capturing young people. Who? The Young and the Restless from Paradise Valley? From the looks of this glittery caucasian homage, it appears they've already captured all forty of them.

Sixth Sense ?

2011-05-03T00:00:00.010-07:00

Twenty seven games represents the first sixth of the season, and prompts some crazy extrapolations. Ryan Roberts is on pace for 36 home runs. Willie Bloomquist - 42 steals. Armando Galarraga - 18 wins.

None of these are likely to play out, but one stat is more astonishing than the rest. Today is May 2nd, and Arizona's All Star Game still hasnt sold out. Ticket strips went on sale March 1st, after MLB and Dback package holders had their dibs. Yet one can access the official ticket portal today and purchase actual game seats in most sections of Chase Field.

This probably sets a modern precedent, since the advent of the internet, although comparative sell out dates are not public record. But All Star events are national spectacles that historically draw customers from around the country. It's hard to imagine that a previous All Star date in the internet age would take more than a few days to fill up.

That said, I'd be surprised if it doesnt eventually sell out. The game is still two months away and prices for strips are less than they were in Anaheim and other recent host cities. Judging from the seat locations spit out by the computer, I estimate five to ten thousand vacancies, which may not sound bad until you consider:

1. MLB reserves large ticket blocks for their marquee game. I'm not sure how many, but I've heard 8-10,000. That could be high, but it's a significant number.

2. Dback season ticket holders own about 10,000 seats and logic suggests their number of ASG purchases is probably fairly close to that.

3. There's a copious supply of tickets available at broker and secondary sites. These tickets may have been obtained via the public sale and/or from season ticket holders,or maybe even from MLB.

What does all this mean? It means that, in two months, the number of tickets sold to end users in the public sale is nowhere near 40,000. It's probably closer to half that. Further, brokers ensure that even when the venue officially "sells out", many tickets will need to be resold in order for the stadium to look full on game day.

Why are sales so slow? This may be the least appealing All Star event ever, especially for out of towners. Phoenix is the hottest city in North America and July, our hottest month. Indeed, the July 12th game date is historically the hottest day of the year. High temps in the shade normally exceed 110 - and late afternoons in the sun, when many events are scheduled, typically register a punishing 130 or higher. This isnt supposed to be a bunkered survival exercise. People are paying good money to relax, party, drink and have summer fun - and while great effort and expense will be paid to chill VIP venues, it will be extremely challenging for the larger host city to craft a favorable impression.

The other aspect is, of course, political. Several Latin and Caribbean stars have hinted at boycotts, rendering the contest less attractive. Some fans might eschew Arizona on similar political grounds. There is also a prospect of public, and indeed organized, demonstrations, and the escalated version few like to talk about: confrontation and violence.

I hope it doesnt come to that, but this is a volatile, hate filled issue and a spotlight like All Star Weekend will almost assuredly attract activists and, unfortunately, some unstable attention seekers.

If you're a wealthy baseball fan, who makes a habit of going to every midsummer classic, and you ever considered skipping a year, my sixth sense says this might be the one.

Kendrick Lampoons Homeless

2011-04-28T16:26:00.015-07:00

In an apparent effort to drum up lagging ASG enthusiasm, tone deaf Dbacks owner Earl "Ken" Kendrick managed to mock homeless people instead:

This still is captured from his club's latest 'lipdub' extravaganza, showing the wealthy magnate wielding a cardboard "Will Work For...." placard. The self made Kendrick is such a sharp card that, even in this highly choreographed advertisement, he forgot to hold his amusing sign high enough for grounded earthlings to actually read and potentially be offended.

If you look through the roll bars like an obsessed doofus, however, you may be able to make out the words "All Star", which suggests the intended message was:

Will Work 4 All Star Tix

One can't assume for a moment Kendrick was intending to ridicule homeless people. I imagine this was an awkward attempt at self-deprecation, and a rather ponderous stab at feigning solidarity with the middle class. To assure MLB's poorest market, struggling through a regional depression, that he feels our pain. That he understands these ASG strips, which have yet to sell out in almost two months online, are expensive.

Despite those reasonable business, and perhaps even personal, intentions, and the fact Kendrick is a charitable giver and grew up in West Virginia and all of that, this remains an inordinately wealthy businessman, who blew more than a million dollars on a baseball card, holding up a different kind of cardboard.

These creased, makeshift signs of desperation are all over Phoenix. Some are scammers and some are destitute people suffering serious ailments. Some of them routinely die outdoors during baseball season, within walking distance of where this allegedly amusing video was shot.

**************
hat tip AZ Snakepit

Poll Result: UN Declares Dbacks 'Unsustainable'

2011-04-20T13:16:00.008-07:00

We asked, "What did the United Nations recently declare the Dbacks?" and rapier-like readers weighed in:

Unsustainable 40%
A humanitarian crisis 30%
The Most Positive Team in the World 30%

Thanks for voting. New Poll at right >>>>>>

332

2011-04-11T14:30:00.005-07:00

With bread lines ebbing and early expectations exceeded between baseball's white lines, Derrick Hall's marketing juggernaut can already grab credit for two more yummy superlatives.

-- Lowest attended Saturday game in club history (20,719)

-- Lowest attended Sunday game (19,718)

That powerful but mysterious All Star attraction we've heard tell of must, somehow, be discouraging sales. Or Opening weekend. Or the Reds arent any good. Or the fact popular ASU alum Mike Leake started on Sunday.

The previous Saturday low (21,627) was last July against the Marlins. Nick Piecoro reported the Sunday draw and I havent bothered to check the previous mark yet. But Saturday's crowd approached a thousand fewer than the earlier trough, which provides a preliminary glimpse into season ticket force.

We can now be all but certain that the base of full package season ticket holders is considerably less than 2010, the previous nadir, and which represents an astonishing decline given the All Star Game carrot.

Partial packages, which convey a watered down form of ASG priority, are a separate story and harder to estimate. These are folded into an aggregate called FSEs(Full Season Equivalents). Most, if not all, partials include home opener access, and judging from that game's attendance compared to last year, FSEs may be relatively flat, although I still suspect they're down a fair amount, since this year's opener fortuitously fell on a Friday night.

But full packages are decimated. We know that from Saturday and Sunday, when those partial pack holders, who went to the Opener, start to distribute attendance more in line with their customized ticket plans. Full packages already hit a new low in 2010 and have clearly dropped further.

We previously noted the club raised prices on season ticket holders in all but the most lavish locations. Eleven of the venue's sixteen pricepoints increased. Small hikes on a per game basis, but the damage for a bleacher bum and a guest (who buys one season ticket?), or a couple in the upper tier, across the full schedule, rose $332.

You wont hear about it on FSN or in The Republic, but as paltry crowds become more and more evident, and assorted jackwagons throw in their two cents anywhere but at the Chase Field box office, it's something to keep in mind.

Resilience

2011-04-06T12:27:00.001-07:00

After dropping three of four on the road, with Armando Galarraga on deck, I find myself not as concerned with how the Dbacks have played as I am with the actual outcomes versus the Cubs.

Mistake prone Chicago's very beatable and Arizona's schedule doesnt let up until the last week in May. With the Reds, Cards and Giants coming to town, standing could head south in a hurry, prompting understandable catcalls of "Here we go again".

Which would be a shame, because although this team is projected by just about everyone to repeat in last place, it really isnt anything like last year's model. It's unclear whether it's better or worse, but the whole feel is different. This team isnt winning, but it's not falling apart, either. In tough situations, it's not letting disaster snowball.  Players are regaining composure and doing their jobs.  The biggest early difference is that this squad competes late in games. It's breathing down the opposite's neck every day. Nobody's beating them up or grinding them down. From the fifth inning on, we've outscored the home team 11-7. That didnt happen last year.

How bad were we after the fifth inning last year? Let's put it this way. At that juncture we were ahead 70 times, behind seventy times and tied 22 times. It was a better midgame 'record' than the world champion San Francisco Giants (65-69-28).  Ours was a team of unprecedented, entrenched late inning ineptitude.

Yesterday, the pen yielded a few dinky seeing eye hits and fans are up in arms with the usual overreactions. It may or may not be a strong pen, or even average, but they've whiffed 13 in eleven innings and to my eye look like a significant improvement.

I doubt it's a concidence either. Towers has made a point of building his staff from the closer back, and filling the rotation with cheap arms. He also received criticism for spending on a variety of aging bench players, but what you have to remember is..they're bench players. You cant compare their performance or value to regulars. You have to compare them to the bench we had, and it's clear to me that with Russell Branyan, alone, this is a more dynamic bench.  Who would you rather have up with the game on the line, Branyan or Rusty Ryal? Look at what Willie Bloomquist has done. He's played decent if unspectacular shortstop and leads the majors in steals (5).

Towers' philosophy seems to be, just keep me in the ballgame early, then I'll come back and beat you late. It hasnt paid dividends yet, but you can feel this coming together. At least I can. For all it's obvious flaws and shortcomings, like Montero's defense, the big guys not hitting yet and some questionable running, this team finally feels like a team again, fighting, clawing to win games - instead of a collection of passive individuals simply playing through them.

It's early, and the upcoming schedule may beat that fight out of them. But so far, for $50 million, I like what I see.

Poll Results: New Team Name

2011-04-03T01:40:00.001-07:00

Since gambling-bankrolled Salt River Fields is the most arresting chip in Ken Kendrick's stack for the foreseeable future, we thought the baseball club might benefit from a peppy, world class name change. Thanks for helping us out.

Poll Results:

Club Casino 50%

Thievedland Indians 29%

Scottsdale Slots 14%

Sedona Reds 7%

Thanks for voting....new poll, right >>>

Accidents Will Happen

2011-04-02T16:40:00.003-07:00

The most ignominious way for an online baseball fan to get ostracized isnt viciously trolling arch rival forums. It's carelessly mentioning anything about one's fantasy team.

I wont jeopardize the burgeoning, hip community spirit of Diamondhacks with that, other than to say this is the first year in several I'm not playing. It's not that it wasnt fun. It's just that when you reach a certain level of proficiency, the daily effort to maintain that mimics multiple strains of mental illness. So I'll have more time on my hands, to read, pay bills and look around at other stuff. Just yesterday, I discovered a wife and dog. She'd been here nineteen years. The dog ten.

Openers are a little like fantasy baseball. Painfully over analyzed, prompting over reactions and their own false sense of importance. I hesitate to even break them down, or at least not dwell on the final score or the obvious. Like the fact Arizona tatooed Ubaldo and our bullpen threw five innings without an earned run. Neither is sustainable, both teams made plenty of mistakes and either club could've won the extra inning tilt on numerous occasions.

The most important play of the game, not in terms of outcome but culture, was when Justin Upton barreled over Chris Iannetta on a grounder to short. Iannetta made the play, but Upton made the impact. How both teams respond today may help inform their respective seasons. The Rockies looked frustrated. Not with the play so much, which looked clean, but just with losing their opener, with Jimenez, to a lowly regarded visitor.

I expect them to come out aggressively today, especially on the bases. Dont be surprised if Upton or a teammate gets brushed back, hard. I'd almost bet on it. What's less clear, and more important, is how the Dbacks respond. Not just to the Rockies' anticipated aggression, but more generally, to Game 2 of an endless season. Will they wait for Colorado to make a statement, or initiate their will. It doesnt have to be Upton, but it's important someone on the Dbacks knock another Rockie on his ass. Lest anyone mistake Friday's freight train for an accident.

The Future Starts Today

2011-04-01T12:51:00.005-07:00

Our scarlet battalion takes to Coors Field in a few minutes, proverbially kicking away their 14th season. Opening Day expectations are lower than at any time in team history, which if you think about it, is remarkable for an expansion franchise.

Colangelo won, early and decisively, generating an improbable confidence. But expectations were higher even before that 1999 money push. One reason is we were dumber then. There was no internet baseball analysis in 1998, and little elsewhere to temper the eager hopes of a fledging fan base.

Expectations were even higher six springs ago, following 111 losses, because management acquired big names like Glaus, Shawn Green, Russ Ortiz and Javier Vazquez. Fans' low water mark of spring confidence was probably 2007, on the heels of three moribund losing seasons. Yet that turned out improbably well.

This year just feels different. Longtime cheerleaders are uncharacteristically restrained. Baseball Prospectus projects 86 losses and MLB partner Jim McLennan, predicts 90, candidly conceding he's had "the optimism beaten out of me".

Part of it is the Giants' resurgence, augmented by young players which was supposed to be our strength. Part of it is the salary dump and uninspiring winter acquisitions. Part is consecutive rock bottom seasons, manifested each May and 25 losses this spring - a modern Cactus League record.

A common thread seems to be a growing and cumulative disenchantment with the direction and competence of this front office. People, from scouts to fans to pundits, have seen a lot of losing, a lot of unrealized hopes, and have decided this outfit wont win. I cant blame them, but personally, I think it's a little overdone. A coping mechanism to not get hurt again.

Amit Lal, perhaps the most credible,least affiliated Dbacks' blogger, leans slightly more optimistic.

I agree, not because I harbor much respect for the organization, but because the team on the field has finally lost its innocent expectations. Nobody likes them anymore, and that can be a powerful motivator. Every starter, except for Mora, is in their prime. And every one of them (except for 23 year old Parra, who had a potentially transformative spring), has a productive MLB season behind them. Pitching will still be a problem, but not necessarily an unmanageable one. The most critical staff balance isnt a rotation's weekly one through five - it's individual game balance between starters and relievers.

These are not great players, but this may be their time. Not to win the division, but to exceed unimaginative expectations.

Threat Level: Sedona Red

2011-03-28T19:36:00.020-07:00

Not that many around Phoenix noticed, in the media shadow cast by Salt River Fields, but the club rolled out a new single game pricing scheme for the regular season, dumping the familiar regular/premium "gasoline" model for a complex, color-coded hierarchy, more evocative of terror threat levels.

The most expensive games are even coded red and yellow, as if to say:

"Danger. You are within purchasing radius of a so called premium game. Severe risk to wallet probable."

They've basically expanded premium pricing from a dozen or so dates per year - to a wishful fifty one (who honestly believes these Dbacks will participate in fifty one remotely 'premium' games?) - and divided those into five classes to help cover their tracks. It's not as if ticket face values have skyrocketed, but the expansion of even modest premiums across a broader segment of schedule is significant.

For example, bleacher seats ran $15 last season, with a $5 premium for about a dozen top games. This year, only 31 of the lowest desirability dates are $15. Another fifteen games run $16, and the remaining thirty five cost between $18-22. So, a fan pays the same as last year 31 times, a little more than last year 43 times and a little less, six or seven times. (Oh yeah, and the Yankees or Red Sox arent coming to town in 2011 either.)

It's a similar tale around most of the stadium. The fattest hikes are appropriately found in the All You Can Eat sections, where this year's mean price, across the entire schedule, exceeds last year's premium rate ($35).
Other club level hikes were relatively lean, and single game rates actually came down in the priciest boxes surrounding the dugouts. But unless those seats are readily available on an individual basis, that seems an empty statistical manipulation more than anything else.

In summary, most of the cheaper and moderate entrances to the ballpark are now less accessible. The smaller but important supply of expensive boxes and club seats are relatively flat, and in a few cases lower -at least in theory.

Briefy, over on the season ticket side, it's the same deal. Eleven of sixteen stadium pricepoints increased - and they're all the cheaper and moderate sections.

Surprisingly, I have mixed feelings about some of this. For years, I've encouraged the Dbacks to roll out demand based pricing - and here it is. There's certainly economic justification for trying to flexibly match ticket price with event demand. In theory, it helps maximize revenue by matching unique seats and events with individual fans, via differentiated, almost customized, price. I think when you look at how they've valued seats, relative to one another, the pricing flow around the park may look smoother than ever.

The problem is that genuine demand-based pricing implies that you're making those sales, those connections, and from what I can derive from anticipated attendance, the Dbacks aint doin' much of that. They aint doin' that because when you look at how they've priced seats, relative to customer utility, the park may look less appealing than it ever has. These prices dont seem to match up with what most potential customers are willing to pay to watch these Diamondbacks.

I used to enjoy hunting around the seating chart, looking for relative bargains. Maybe it was a cool Friday or Saturdaynight game against the Brewers, at the standard single game price. Or "sneaking in" with a $5 ticket and moving down. Or lucking into a front row seat in a traditionally underpriced section online. Those little pleasures are all but gone now.

They've been disappearing for years, and the Diamondbacks' curious version of "demand-based" pricing, along with Ticketmaster, pretty much closes the door on those little discoveries, without offering up anything in the way of new pleasures. The stadium has almost fifty thousand seats. Surveying the whole thing, section by section, I gradually realize there's no place I'm really eager to sit anymore. Or at least no place I wouldnt feel somewhat foolish, buying a ticket from the ballclub. It's hardly terrorism, but with a venue more empty than occupied, that's not the way demand based pricing is supposed to work.

Irascible Blogger Finally Employs Voodoo

2011-03-20T23:11:00.012-07:00

I was doing a happy little jig in my kitchen about three months ago - right about the time we signed Xavier Nady - when my lower back seized up something fierce. A paralyzing spasm unlike any I'd ever felt.  A couple days ago, Dback closer JJ Putz wrenched his back in similar fashion.

On March 5th, I broke my arm in two places, just above the left hand.  First break ever. A week later, Zach Duke broke two bones in his left hand.

This Friday, I climbed up Squaw Peak, with my broken wing and balky spine.  I've hiked this hill hundreds of times without incident, but on the way down, near the bottom, I sprained my left foot.

Watch where you step, Diamondbacks.

Not So Merry Go Round

2011-03-12T20:01:00.006-07:00

Spring training is notorious for jumping to erroneous April conclusions. Regulars dont play much, and when they do, may be shaking off winter rust and/or Scottsdale hangovers. But is there anything we can take away from the first couple weeks?

The Diamondbacks' 5-13 record (.278) is the worst in baseball. By itself, such ineptitude probably doesnt foretell much. In addition to sporadic starter play, Arizona lost a bunch of one run exhibitions, and eighteen games is a pretty small sample to begin with - a handful of single run losses flip the other way and you're right at .500.

But it might hint you're not likely a dominant or contending squad. Dominant teams seldom drop thirteen of 18, even under less than representative circumstances. It happens - it's just hard for really good teams to play sub .300 baseball for this long.

Breaking down current tendencies may help us better understand the Dbacks' future. What kind of offense and defense should we expect from a sub .300 record? Below average in both? Really bad in one or the other?

Here's some Dback spring superlatives. This is out of thirty teams:

Most Home Runs (23)

Most xtra base hits (61)

Most total bases (292)

Third in runs. Sixth in OPS.

Arizona's played two more games than league norm, inflating their counting stats. Maybe Salt River Fields plays small too. But for a 5-13 team, the hitting's been pretty darn good. It's not easy to hit more homers than all the other teams - eight teams have yet to hit ten - and still manage the game's rock bottom record.

Kirk Gibson has lamented errors, but five clubs have more miscues - again, in fewer contests. His charges rank 24th in something called Defensive Efficiency. Only Tampa Bay (26) has allowed more Stolen Bases against (25). So, defense hasnt helped.

It gets worse.

Most Hits Allowed (190)

29th in ERA (5.86), Runs, Earned Runs Allowed (Cubs are dead last in all three measures)

Most Total Bases Allowed (306)

Most HBP (12)

Most Balks (4)

Most Wild Pitches (15)

Highest SLG% Against (.484)

Togther, spring leading marks in Wild Pitches, Hit Batsmen, Balks and the second most Stolen Bases Allowed, represent the absurd ease with which opponents advance on the bases without even hitting the ball. These were all liabilities last season as well.

How high is a .484 SLG %? Ask 2010 All Star Shin-Soo Choo. Career SLG% for a median Hall of Famer is only .462. Our amateur infested staff is effectively transforming opponents' amateur infested spring lineups into Murderer's Rows.

There's way too much sample noise to expect these extremes to replicate into the regular season, but for a franchise relying on significant pitching improvement in order to contend, these early go rounds portend anything but merry.

Salt River Fields: Worth Every Penny (Part I)

2011-03-01T23:19:00.005-07:00

Here's my photo essay on today's excursion to Salt River Fields. You can click on the photos to enlarge. I guess we'll start with this:

Just a parking lot, at the Pavillions Mall, south and adjacent to Salt River Fields. It's free, with easy access, as are all the other mall lots. Why bother paying $5 for parking across the street?

I entered the 140 acre facility on foot, from the south, which is the Rockies' entrance. Here's their batting cages. Ten covered bays. It's enormous:

Their public walkway is engraved with cute affirmations:

and

One for each month. Lots of players on either side of the elevated walkway, engaged in various drills on the pristine fields below. Remember, all this is free. Eventually the walkway ends at the stadium's right field gate, where you have to present your game ticket to proceed. I didnt have a ticket yet and didnt want to buy one until I experienced the Dbacks' side of the exterior practice fields.

This is where things got weird. It wasnt at all clear how to do that, but I found a skinny, underutilized walkway, off to the left, that traced the backside of the stadium:

Not terribly appealing or promising looking. No signs to guide you. It may be hard to see here, but this exhaust vent was emitting noxious "steam" onto the walkway:

This is how you get from the Rockies practice fields to the Dbacks side. Or at least this is how that oddyssey began. I could peek thru the fence to see stadium delights here and there:

Here's the Dbacks complex overlooking left field. At first glance, it reminded me of an attractive airport terminal. The thing is huge. Almost as huge as the edifice that made Salt River Fields possible:

That's Talking Stick Resort and Casino, right across the street and visibly looming over the baseball facility. I'm still outside the ballpark here, searching for Diamondbacks. I eventually spot one and am genuinely thrilled:

Roland Hemond, the first Dback Hall of Famer (unless you count Roberto Alomar, which you shouldnt), elected just last week as the first recipient of The Buck O'Neil Award (after O'Neil himself). I wanted to introduce myself and offer congratulations, but Hemond was on an extended call and I didnt want to loiter around him like some kind of loser. So I hiked further until I finally came to the Diamondbacks walkway:

The Dbacks dont put affirmations on their walkway. They inscribe accomplishments, most of which happened before 2004. Here they celebrate their 25th million paying fan, from 2007. And here, with nothing recent to crow about on the field, they boast of $25M in charitable donations:

Both accomplishments are over the life of the franchise, not something that magically happened out of the blue (or Sedona Red), in 2007 or 2010. The twin acheivements suggest the franchise has donated less than a dollar of every ticket sold to charitable causes. Considering ticket revenue is a fairly small component of overall earnings (about 25%), the charitable outlay per revenue dollar is even less - about 25 cents on a mean ticket average exceeding $20 dollars.

It makes me wonder what other teams, like the Rockies, donate to charity. Of course, it's harder to tell with them, since they dont advertise their largesse in sandblasted cement. End rant.

Here's some pitchers retrieving balls after BP. Jarrod Parker in the middle, Clay Zavada on the right. I gotta say, there was a lot less to look at on the Diamondbacks side. A lot less activity, fewer players doing stuff out in the open. In the upper right hand corner of the above photo, you might make out some red uniforms. That's where most of the action was and where I headed next.

Sort of. I walked due west, away from that activity to the far end of the Diamondbacks walkway, so I could cut behind these batting cages en route to the far field. No such luck. There's sunglass-wearing Security punks all over the place telling you you have to walk around the complex perimeter to approach this hallowed practice ground. They're not really punks. You can tell the nice ones hate their duties, having to enforce officious edicts that truly inconvenience innocuous fans. Here's some metal barriers I eventually hopped on my way out of this beaureacratic maze:

The guard in the white shirt (background) saw me but didnt say anything. I purposely didnt make eye contact with him, and just walked where it made sense to me. What's he gonna do. Tackle me?

What's there to see when you finally get to the Dbacks' fields? Well, this mostly:

Their side is full of opaque screens. I felt like I was touring a NORAD facility. It was a joke, especially in light of Derrick Hall's talking points on how fan friendly and accessible this is. Here's some unidentified guys, stretching, like fifty yards away from the unpaved fan walkway:

Here's some more unidentified guys, hiding from fans in the cavernous weight room:

Pretty exciting, huh? That's it. That's all I saw. You can tell from the back of the "Salt River Fields" sign, up top, that I'm almost directly behind center field at this point. I started walking toward the direction of the fans' CF ballpark entrance, when another one of these jackass guards started spitting sunflower seeds and insisting I backtrack my elongated journey around the entire complex perimeter. I was fuming at this point. And I'm not just saying that because this is Diamondhacks. I've been in some historic spring training parking snafus, but I've honestly never been subject to a more self-important, heavily guarded, us vs them ST environment.

Even from the outside, I could easily tell this was a new, clean, expensive, shiny facility (we'll get to that in Part II), but the clarity and ease of access from one side of the facility to the other is a disaster - especially on the Diamondbacks' side. It's pretty, but inconvenient, confusing and aggressively officious. The antithesis of what's been advertised.

Part II

Salt River Fields: Worth Every Penny (Part II)

2011-03-01T23:18:00.009-07:00

After getting jerked around the exterior practice fields, I backtracked my steps towards the home plate area just outside the main stadium. This took a while and I was so annoyed I decided to just go home, bag the game and write a scathing review. But then an angel appeared.

This hardened character was gliding around the Will Call windows, warbling "Tickets!" I asked if she was selling and she said, "Oh, you can have it." I must've looked indigent. Seriously, she's a Rockies' fan, very nice and as luck would have it, sits in the lower level.

First row.

Heh.

Anyway, this stroke of luck bouyed my attitude and is why you're now reading Part II of this Salt River Fields review. Let's go inside.

This photo shows local tribeswomen playing a stick and ball game long ago with mesquite and willow branches:

Maybe a little contrived, but still culturally interesting. Here's some other women of cultural interest:

Good lord. There were Scottsdale bimbos everywhere. Even on a Tuesday afternoon. These two were selling $11 bombers. Concession prices, you ask?

Burger meals are $10. Something called a Value Beer is $5. Hey, does that guy wanna be on Diamondhacks, or what? Something called a "Value Meal" is $10.

Hot dog and fries. I laughed. There was a lot of good looking food and drink, actually, but nothing screamed value to me, so I stuck with my trusty liter of water from home.

I got teased on azcentral for claiming the OF berm was too steep to set down a drink. (They couldnt understand why anyone would "set down" a drink to begin with.) Here, I prove you can set down a drink on the berm. Well, on the light tower base on the berm. Close enough.

We've heard gushing about mountain views and the reality is mixed. Yeah, there are mountains. Four Peaks (in the distance) looks especially nice after the recent snow:

But the closer McDowell range is largely obscured by the massive clubhouse building:

This is from the main concourse level. Lower down, in the majority of seats, you cant see this range at all. The stadium is kind of a closed in bowl and I guess the really nice views are reserved for the party decks. I dont wana sound snotty about it. It's still a nice setting. It's not industrial or anything. But all this talk of "magnificent" and "breathtaking" mountain views is really overdone.

I hiked from my home in Central Phoenix yesterday to nearby North Mountain Park, and enjoyed snowcapped panoramas that, frankly, left this in the dust. Similarly, the unusual Papago Buttes moonscape looming over Phoenix Muni (the Oakland A's spring base) is more arresting, in my opinion. The mountains near the Surprise ballpark and the Tucson park these guys just abandoned, both with fighter jets roaring by, have very comparable appeal. This is pleasant enough, but can the Shangri-la hype already.

To convey the bowl feel, here's the steps from the main concourse (street level) to the lower concourse:

Not sure if you can see, but that's three flights. And this isnt even down to field level. This is only (roughly) half way down, just to the lower concourse bisecting the two seating bands. See any mountains down here?

There are some nice amenities. As reported at azsnakepit, there's complimentary sunscreen dispensers:

This is a great example of something that actually benefits fans. It's genuinely useful. It's not something you're trying to market to people. Because of that, it generates untold good will.

Fans flocked to this like bees to a hive. I dont know if this is an original idea or they stole it from Camelback Ranch like most everything else, but kudos for implementing this simple amenity. When Ken Kendrick walked by, I overheard him favorably remark on today's cloud cover, which tells me they "get" this issue, which MLB generally does not. Now, the mantra about 85% of fixed seats in the shade is typical Derrick babble - most seats are still in the sun most of the time. But I do think there's more seated shade here than in other Cactus parks I've been to.

Here's another amenity I like:

...just a simple shelf behind the last row of seats. You can put a drink or even a meal here. It encourages standing room, which improves ballpark vibe in my view, and keeps standees a couple feet away from those seated in the last row.

What else? Here's the iconic shot of the tilted, signature light towers...and here's some more Towers:

That's Kevin Towers, in the white shirt, next to Derrick Hall. I just howl every time I see this. Look at how long that railing is. You cant see it, but there's expensive outdoor lounge furniture up on that balcony behind them. Look at Derrick being "accessible" to the fan whose hair is two feet below Derrick's shoes. They look like a couple of fucking Pharoahs up there.

Here's Derrick and Ken "mixing" with the common folk. They sat here for an inning or two and then disappeared. I have a few more pix and could comment ad nauseum on this place, but better wrap it up.

It's an attractive, comfortable ballpark with obvious attention paid to amenities. Practice facilities wrapped around the main stadium are free and impressive, but walking access between peripheral sectors is surprisingly poor. Some construction is ongoing in outlying areas. Inside, vendors were solicitous and fun. Concessions were varied and ranged from typical to rather pricey, even for the Cactus League. ( For example, T-shirts and hats were $25-28 in the Team Shop.)

Parking for a weekday game was free and a breeze, just south of the complex at Pavillions Mall, although weekenders present more of a challenge. I'd guess the median age of fans at this Tuesday game pushed sixty, although there's inevitably some Scottsdale eye candy prancing around.

It was fun and of most that was intended. The most winceworthy bit of humor came just before first pitch, when instead of making fans endure a loud video of a snake catching a ball in its fangs, they pipe in a recording of Derrick and Ken talking up their ballpark. They mention Disneyland, of course. Derrick goes on to assert that this is the best ballpark ever and there will never be another like it. You can almost hear strings in the background.

What's so weird is that he's haranguing customers who are already in his ballpark. They've already bought tickets and are assessing the place, bit by bit, generally favorably, and yet he simply cant or wont leave that natural process alone. This isnt a spontaneous speech on Opening Day. They've recorded this corporate homage and pipe it in each day. It's an incredibly awkward display of hubris. Or insecurity. I'm not exactly sure which.
But it's a pleasant, clean, new, shiny park. It's nice, if imperfect. A hundred and fifty million bucks should get you a grand, ostentatious miniature stadium - and that's what they have. I parked for free. Brought water from home. Scored a complimentary ticket from a rocky mountain angel. I didnt open my wallet once while I was there, watching ball, chatting with fans, enjoying the scenery. To this cheapskate, Salt River Fields was worth every penny.

Part I

$alt River Field$ @ $ilent $tick

2011-02-26T21:53:00.006-07:00

As a rule, I dont have a problem with untelevised exhibition games. Cactus contests should be intimate, visceral affairs - a first hand, bygone departure from the overexposed virtual reality consuming MLB's regular season. Especially in Arizona, where we enjoy an embarrassing glut of live baseball ten months each year, and where six months of Daron Sutton broadcasts are already five too many.

All the same, given the Diamondbacks' ultra aggressive marketing demeanor under Derrick Hall, it's funny and awkward how FSN didnt televise his inaugural shindig at Salt River Fields - at least not on their flagship station with the most penetration.  This was pretty clearly the Dbacks' second most anticipated, scripted event of the year, between rehearsed All Star festivities and the combined exploitation of Colangelo's champions and 9/11, planned for September.

Today's game was sold out long ago, which means airing the event wouldn't compromise gate revenue.  Plus, a colorful crowd stretched across blankets on the outfield berm makes SRF "the place to be" to potential ticket buyers viewing from home. You'd trust this rudimentary marketing dynamic didnt escape our FO, overseeing franchise low attendance at an increasingly empty Chase Field.

Of course the awkward truth is that Derrick Hall, who has worked tirelessly to market away distinctions between fluff and competitive baseball, doesnt control which of his hyped concoctions gets televised on which cable channel. Not even a destination event he's trumpeted for over a year. That's because it's up to Fox Sports Network, who paid Ken Kendrick millions for the option; today they opted to air Pac-10 basketball on FSNAZ, while relegating a much anticipated Dback event to so called "Plus" subscription channels, with implicitly "minus" penetration.

It's an example of how contractually cashing in and cultivating a fan base arent the same thing, and are sometimes at odds.  The Dbacks already got paid by Fox, which gives Kendrick a degree of revenue certainty. But they also forfeited some control over their relationship with fans in the process.   Control over how they expose their most ballyhooed events to customers, many of whom never had live televised access to this one.

Threat Level: Sedona Red

2011-02-26T10:58:00.010-07:00

For those unable to read the fine, poorly centered print:

This website has been reported as unsafe

www.azsnakepit.com

We recommend that you do not continue to this website.

(Well, heck. Join the club, Microsoft.)

This website has been reported to Microsoft for containing threats to your computer that might reveal personal or financial information.

(What? Nothing about threats to independent speech, the online community or the integrity of people, process and ideas?)

Pulling down the More Information menu reveals this charmer:

Malicious software threat: This site contains links to viruses or other software programs that can reveal personal information stored or typed on your computer to malicious persons.

(Malicious persons? Hey, c'mon. That's not just Diamondhacks talking anymore!)

(Ed. Here's another screen print, five hours later, after we tried to access a different snakepit article. Timestamps in lower right hand corner)

More Whispers From Kendrick

2011-02-12T19:50:00.025-07:00

Of all the famous gaffes and baffling missteps perpetrated by Managing Partner Earl "Ken" Kendrick, perhaps none backfired like the time he curiously volunteered to The Arizona Republic that previously unimplicated Gonzo was the subject of vague and unspecified steroid "whispers".

Four years later, Kendrick appears to have this 'whispers' strategy down pat.

His wife, Randy, sits on the board of the Goldwater Institute, which is threatening to sue Glendale, claiming that city's proposed Coyotes handout violates the gift clause of the Arizona Constitution. The conservative Institute

"opposes government subsidies and special incentives for specific businesses."

But wait. Werent the Diamondbacks specific beneficiaries of massive gov't subsidies? Wasnt more than $100M in extra sales tax generated via a dedicated rate increase, amid great controversy, to enable construction of Bank One Ballpark? Wasnt their recently discarded Tucson practice facility also built with taxpayer funds?

Shhhhhh.

Where was the Goldwater Institute, founded in 1988, then? In fairness, they didnt start litigating until well after that, and Randy Kendrick's husband wasnt the Dbacks' primary decider when those stadiums were built. But he was one of the club's largest investors, benefitting from those lofty and hardly transparent handouts. If Mr Kendrick was opposed to those subsidies in principle, he certainly didnt divest himself of club shares in practice.

More recently, he convinced a tribe to build his Dbacks a third stadium. Approximately one quater of the original $100M debt was bankrolled by loans guaranteed with federal stimulus. In other words, if the tribe defaults, Mr Kendrick is secure in the knowledge that taxpayers will bail out his project. How might the tribe's or Mr Kendrick's liabilities increase in the absence of such government charity? Would the project be as robust, or get funded at all?

Shhhhh

Judging from the complete absence of Goldwater suits challenging these baseball handouts, we're confident these government subsidies and special incentives to a specific business dont rise to the level of "government subsidies and special incentives for specific businesses" that Randy Kendrick's colleagues decried in their charter. Maybe these self-styled champions of liberty and freedom were too busy threatening one of Randy's husband's biggest competitors for the local sports dollar to take a principled stand.

This comes less than a year after Derrick Hall insisted the Dbacks dont take political positions as an organization, in response to club boycotts fueled by Republican immigration law. (Mr & Mrs Kendrick are significant Republican donors.) Shortly thereafter, however, Kendrick was caught red handed hosting a fundraiser for a vocal Republican SB1070 supporter. Not at Kendrick's private estate. At publicly financed Bank One Ballpark. During games. Games which generate revenue from fans of every political stripe.

Shhhhhh

If the Goldwater Institute was litigating back in the day, it leaves one to wonder if they would have, or could have, halted construction of Bank One Ballpark itself, effectively depriving the Valley of major league baseball. It certainly seems consistent with their charter - and with their aggressive approach towards Glendale and the Coyotes. We'll never know if the presence of Randy Kendrick on the board would've altered Goldwater's practical approach or case selectivity way back then.

What seems clearer is Mr Kendrick's awkward application of political "principle". The controversial stadium financing forged by Republican Jerry Colangelo is still held in disdain by many libertarian, Goldwater types. So, it's more than a little amusing to watch his most outwardly critical business partner quietly benefit from those early taxpayer subsidies, then shrilly distance himself from the catalyst who took most of the funding heat and who made Kendrick's investment possible in the first place.

Finally, Kendrick engineers a $100-$150M stadium deal of his own, backed, predictably enough "in the background", with Obama stimulus. While Derrick Hall energetically tightropes the truth, assuring news outlets that "no tax dollars" were involved.

Hall was right when he said the Diamondbacks dont take "any" political position. They attach themselves to whatever story line appears to benefit Mr Kendrick at the moment - regardless of political principle. It's an ugly red stripe in the American flag. Declare with libertarian piety "Dont tread on me!" Your wife can even hold the bullhorn. But when government treads on others to grease your personal windfalls, keep your voice down and count the millions in silence.

(hat tip: AZ Snakepit)

Stay On Top Of The Dbacks

2011-02-03T18:32:00.001-07:00

MLB's new toolbar invites you to "stay on top of the Dbacks".

...I think the NL West has this pretty much under control.

Black Holes

2011-01-31T22:48:00.004-07:00

These arent the most underrated players ever. You'd have to scour the Negro, Latin and 19th century leagues for them, and I'm not feeling that ambitious. It's just a sampling of players I watched, mostly as a kid, whose current reputations for one reason or another, severely lag their objective contributions.

Stardom and reputation are funny things. They're more liquid than many fans realize. Hank Aaron was certainly a star, but comparatively underrated in the 1970s. He may be a little overrated now. When I was young, it was a given that DiMaggio surpassed Mantle. Today, it's the other way around.

The guys on my list, except for the first entry, arent truly great. But they were really, really good, and all but forgotten now. Stars shine bright. These are some black holes.

Frank Robinson - may be the least appreciated of the truly great position players. Right field contemporaries included Aaron, Kaline, Clemente. Elsewhere in the OF, Mays and Mantle in New York, Ted Williams winding down his career in Boston. Then there's the whole surname thing. Frank and Brooks Robinson were routinely portrayed by media as equal partners in Orioles success, despite Frank's superiority. Except, of course, Brooks was more "clutch".

But the Robinson who eclipsed his fame most was probably Jackie. Frank was not just one of Baltimore's "Robinsons"; he was vaguely perceived, by some anyway, as that "other" black Robinson.

Before the steroid crew came along, this double MVP landed fourth in all time homers (586). Fourth! Aaron, Ruth, Mays, then this guy. A serious dude and ferocious competitor, when that didnt always endear the white sporting public.

Kent Tekulve - tall, skinny, bespectacled Pirate reliever, Tekulve pitched 40% more innings than Lee Smith, with an identical career park adjusted ERA+ (132). Managed "only" 184 saves due to multi inning saves and because he set up a lot, but he was superior to Smith, the equal of HOFer Bruce Sutter, and right behind the likes of Gossage and Hoffman. He doesnt quite fit my definition of a Hall of Famer, but even conversations about great relievers virtually never include Tekulve.

Reggie Smith - when people bash Jim Rice, they often use his Boston OF mates, Dwight Evans and Fred Lynn as undervalued comps. Smith, a 60's era Red Sox RFer was better than any of them, but his stats suffered from a deadball decade. He also played in the mammoth regional shadow of Yaz. A better fielder, runner and yes, hitter, than Rice, Smith's career WAR (63.4) was higher than these HOF outfielders:

Goslin
Keeler
Winfield
Ashburn
Wheat
Stargell
Billy Williams
Andre Dawson
Medwick
Slaughter
Kiner
Puckett
Rice
Brock

Wow. Have you forgotten his name already? The other Reggie. Reggie Smith.

Rick Reuschel - highest WAR (66.3) of any eligible pitcher not inducted in Cooperstown. On that list, he ranks 30th, between Tom Glavine and Bob Feller. He was also the fattest player I ever saw live, in 1981.

Roy White - rare for a career Yankee to be this unheralded, but White labored for some really lousy teams that NY fans abandoned. Developed in the 1960s and his home park was a killer, before the remodel. A smart and effective, but less than dominant player - much like Bernie Williams. Here's the famous White-Rice riff from Bill James.

Frank Tanana - overshadowed by Ryan on 70s Angels teams, but Tanana was clearly better between 1974-78 (30.4 WAR vs Ryan's 23.4) . Liked Atlanta, ripe banana, married Lola Falana. Later jilted by hard hearted Hannah.

Darrell Evans - another James' favorite. Often confused with Dwight Evans. Played multiple positions for medium market teams, and never really made an indelible impression. But he whopped 400 homers, scored 1300 runs and batted in the same. As good a hitter as three recent inductees, Alomar, Dawson and Rice.

John Olerud - few know it, but Olerud was a comparable hitter and glove to Mattingly - and played much longer. His best two seasons were better than any Mattingly season, but pushing Donnie Baseball into Cooperstown has become such a cottage industry, that Olerud is best known as that guy who wore a helmet playing first.

Honorable Mention: Kevin Appier, Bobby Grich, Lou Whittaker, Jack Clark

Name That Franchise

2011-01-28T14:10:00.014-07:00

Arizona Diamondbacks. What does that even mean anymore?

The organization's original, inclusive vision extended the triple AAA club, as well as spring ball, to Tucson, our state's second largest metro. Jerry Colangelo, who still resides off Thomas Road in central Phoenix, wanted to exploit the southern market and brand the club across the state.

But after the franchise father was disowned, his successors severed the last limb of this statewide vision. The independent minor league squad recently relocated to Reno. Then, Paradise Valley residents, Ken Kendrick and Derrick Hall, abandoned Tucson entirely for greener casino pasture, just west of their private mcmansions. The audacity with which Arizona's indigenous team circled its wagons in Scottsdale, before the adolescent TEP was even paid off, begs the question whether the broad 'Arizona' appelation applies anymore.

Our crass brass hasnt merely consolidated the franchise's geographic base. The number and socioeconomic diversity of fans has been methodically winnowed as well, thanks to hapless baseball and exclusionary marketing policy. By trying to subsidize the sport's lowest season ticket prices with artificially pricey single games (in a down economy with an alienating product), Moorad, Kendrick and Hall transformed a welcoming brand that used to bring millions of Arizonans together into little more than a club sport. Due to their efforts in the nation's fifth largest city, even the season ticket base central to their vision has dwindled to about four thousand accounts, the size of a few sprawling East Valley dinner parties.

These guys represent Arizona much like Michele Bachmann "represents" Minnesota. (Except she was elected.) There's little if anything statewide or inclusive about their actions, despite the incessant din of Derrick Hall's double talking populism. He can sit and rotate inside his "Circles of Success" all he wants, but the result of their leadership is that fewer and fewer Arizonans identify with the Diamondbacks each passing year. At Chase Field. On television. Now they've divorced the southern third of the state in favor of catering to a favored and familiar enclave of customers.

What place name marks the boundary of such provincial snobbery? Certainly commercial Phoenix, my hometown, more closely reflects what this front office is all about than rugged "Arizona". Scottsdale and Paradise Valley are more accurate still.

As far as the "Diamondbacks" part of the name, it's a shame Kendrick and Moorad didnt swap it out when they rose to power or painted over the colors. They were so determined to distance themselves from Colangelo. They boasted of their "financially responsible" front office, run like a business. Baseball ops run by whizzzz kids. A broadcast overhaul, not just of on air talent, but an entire production paradigm (cable only of course) determined to sell anything but baseball. (Cable ratings are down). An aggressive makeover of uniforms and the stadium. They were so proud of themselves. Moorad even called them "The Dream Team". In public. Seriously. Not the team on the field. That's what the front office called themselves.

Except they held on to "Diamondbacks", to mine the valuable underlying continuity it implied, while detonating most everything Jerry built. They pretended to be visionary originals, except when piggybacking on the Diamondback legacy proved expedient.

Like now. The baseball has completely unraveled and carpetbagging partners angrily split with one another (again) over money. So now, the remaining principal (Kendrick) will exploit the tenth anniversary of Jerry's championship for all it's worth, to grab nostalgic good will from an operation Kendrick openly ridiculed, painted over and dismantled. All to stem a freefalling fan base and distract from his own hapless operation unable to do so.

Maybe it would've been a cleaner break back in 2004, had Kendrick plainly announced his destruction of the Arizona Diamondbacks and the genesis of the Paradise Valley Scorpions or, say, Scottsdale Slots. It would have cleared up so much subsequent confusion.

Ball Back, Spring Ahead

2011-01-20T21:14:00.025-07:00

Reservations and what amount to advance cover charges to Casino Lounge West are reportedly disappearing as fast as a $20 bill down the street, but betting on baseball fans to attend actual Diamondback games downtown, remains more of a long shot. This surmised from snips of Derrick Hall's painstakingly leading statements, and neither comes as much surprise.

The Cactus League's latest bauble, wedged just west of its benefactor's gambling palace and east of Paradise Valley, is bound to draw its target clientele; Derrick Hall's wealthy neighbors.

Hall, who resides a brisk walk from his $100M split-level club, boasted $2M in package revenue as well as 30,000 single sales during the first box office day. (see video, courtesy of our good friend, Jim McLennan)

$2M represents a likely mimimum of 6000 season tickets sold, based on package pricing. 30,000 singles amounts to 1750 additional sales per game across a 17 game schedule. That's already 7750 total sales per exhibition, on average.

In a stadium with 7000 seats.

Well, ok, there are supposedly four thousand squares of inclined sod they're charging ten dollars apiece for online, as well. Surely, some of Hall's sales squat on that assy knoll. It's hard to say how many, though. We can derive from Hall's remarks that roughly 100 of 130K seats sold to date were package deals, and those buyers, especially in the spring, generally want the nicest seats.

Yet surprisingly, Ticketmaster just spit out four together in row 4, behind home plate, for a weekday game in late March. (Just browsing.) The significance is that prime location wasnt blocked (ie previously purchased) as a season ticket. If Hall indeed moved $2M in packages, without the benefit of selling out the priciest sections, it means he sold more packages. Quite a bit more. That 6000 estimate quickly rises towards 7K, if $425 boxes behind the plate currently sit vacant.

Do I believe Hall's numbers? I dont know. At this point, I'm predisposed to think they are misleading. I certainly believe there's interest in the new park and expect inaugural weekend games, along with Cubs' and perhaps other visits, to sell out. But if you've transacted 70-80%(7750-8750 / 11000) of ballpark capacity by the close of the general public's first box office day, and still have a good five or six weeks of spring fever runup to exploit, it strains reason to think you wouldnt sell out the entire schedule.

Maybe they will. We'll see. But if they dont, we need look no further for the reason than to question Hall's predictably cheery figures.

************

Downtown, Hall offered that the package renewal rate neared 80 percent.

Eighty percent of 12000 is 9600, which means they hemorraghed 2400 seats - from what was already a paltry, declining base. Despite MLB's fattest carrot: All Star Weekend.

“It’s a little lower than we would have hoped, but that’s obviously the economy and the way we played,” Hall said.

Mr Hall blames two factors, neither considered within his purview (ie external economy and poor play was primarily a baseball ops responsibility). He doesnt volunteer that, on the heels of two miserable seasons, he increased season ticket prices in ten of the stadium's seventeen pricepoints. I'm sure that had nooooooo effect on sales. Nor did our CEO / President's role in a range of alienating executive decisions, from the AJ Hinch fiasco to asinine ballpark and broadcast initiatives.

“Ticket revenues are up from last year..."

So revenue's "up" and they're slashing payroll? With a positional core in its prime? Sweet. Perhaps being an investor is more rewarding than being a fan, despite FO insistence to the contrary.

“...which tells you people are more willing to spend more money in the premium areas.”

From this, one might assume he raised prices in premium areas (ie the affluent)to 'palatably' increase revenue in tough times. But that didnt happen. Rates in premium areas were virtually flat. The four highest price points in the park, for example, incurred no increase at all. All the largest hikes were levied in the upper deck and bleachers - not only in % terms - but in real dollars.

When Hall claims revenues are up and numerical sales are down, he's really saying the average transaction price increased. But we know hikes (the largest of which are only $2 per seat) werent large enough to offset lost revenue from 1400 fewer net accounts. The average sold ticket would need to increase $216, seasonally, to offset that, assuming a $20 ave ticket. But the average sold ticket increased by less than half that.

The only way revenues rose was if seat composition dramatically shifted, implying much higher attrition rates upstairs and tangibly higher net sales in the $100 boxes. But such a shift seems curious. Would the spectrum of folks who just want "in" on the All Star Game almost exclusively invest in the most expensive packages? To suffer through six months of rebuilding? Wouldnt a more modest investment to guarantee ASG priority make more sense?

Second, it's unclear how much of these most expensive areas (the ones that drive Chase's mean seat price) are even available. If $85-$120 boxes around the dugouts werent completely sold out, historically they were pretty close to it. Could you even fit 200 additional net sales down there?

If this migration is true, however, it heralds an even sadder state of affairs than if Hall is juggling his familiar rainbow of incompatible impressions. It means attrition was very high among regular folk (ie cheaper packages), even on the cusp of an ASG. Hall can justify a pricing model that continues pushing 'regular people' away from his product, because overall revenues are "up".

Regardless of revenue claims, there can be no denying that fewer and fewer fans believe the Dbacks are worth Derrick Hall's various prices of admission.

What Foolish Backwards People!

2011-01-16T00:16:00.003-07:00

I rarely get out to the far west side, but on the car trip to tonight's Coyotes game, we happened upon something pretty astonishing. It's mostly farm fields and sad, dusty cults surrounding the stadiums out there. But until today, I had no idea just how backwards some of these religious enclaves are.

My camera was inadvertently in film mode, so sorry about the terrible framing, but I think you can make out two groups lining up after playing what appeared to be a very primitive form of base ball. 'Players' wore rough, homemade textiles, reminiscent of late 19th century civilization - or perhaps contemporary Mesa.

As I say, I dont often venture this far from our modern metro center, but it was a fascinating glimpse at a defiant little subculture, remarkably insulated from present day mores and innovation, with which to better their lives. I felt sorry for them, and imagine they dont bathe often or treat their women especially well, although I witnessed no direct evidence of this.

Just a stone's throw from this reactionary clique looms the ultra modern University of Phoenix Stadium, like a space ship from a more advanced civilization. And Jobing.com arena, where we watched the Coyotes thrash Anaheim, 6-2. Hockey's fun to watch live. There's less dead time than the other big American sports, and you cant really see, let alone appreciate, the physicality, grace and teamwork from a zoomed in TV frame. The team, under Dave Tippett, is disciplined, tenacious and easy to root for.

But on a Saturday night, with little else going on locally, the arena was half full. And a third of those seemed like Anaheim fans. There's 85 reasons why hockey hasnt caught on better in the Valley, but I really think if the Coyotes ran some aggressive loss leaders just to get generic sports fans like me in the arena, they would engage folks and get some hooked. They're doing some of that, but considering how tenuous their future appears in the Valley and how hard the NHL has tried to establish hockey here, I assumed price cuts would be deeper and more desperate.

It almost makes me think, despite the public face of recent ownership "progress", that the days of hockey in the Valley are numbered. It hurts my civic pride to say that, but I've started to pay more attention to the Glendale lease and financing situations, and just dont see how the Coyotes can break even, absent massive subsidies. According to USA today, their 2009-10 player payroll was $49M. That's almost as much as the Diamondbacks. Their revenue streams must be a fraction of the other local franchises. Paltry TV revenue. Ticket revenue is probably about a third of the Suns' gate - and a fifth of the Dbacks'. The City of Glendale is rallying around 'parking revenue' as the big panacea that will make it all work. That's not a good sign.

Somebody has to pay that $49M payroll, plus expenses, every year. Either fans or taxpayers. At this point, it's sounding like more of the latter.

Day After Presumptions

2011-01-06T16:44:00.009-07:00

Jeff Bagwell, a decent minor leaguer with a future in bodybuilding, who eventually hit 449 MLB homers, didnt enter the Hall of Fame on his first try.

Pinch yourselves, sanctimonious moralists! Just to prove it's not all some wonderous dream. Is that wicked bastion of McCarthyism, the Hall of Fame, still standing? Check. Phew.

Is Bagwell still a serious candidate, after garnering 40% of possible votes? He sure is, with more than milligrams to spare.

Pardon the sarcasm, but The Day After exposes the Legal Standards of Proof zealots and Presumption of Innocence crowd as overwrought and misguided. Joe Posnanski never looks foolish, but let's revisit his most quoted and lauded tidbit from last week:

I'd rather a hundred steroid users were mistakenly voted into the Hall of Fame over keeping one non-user out.

I guess the key word here is "keeping". It can imply an ongoing process, finality, or both. Yesterday's tally was the start of an ongoing process. Did it rise to the level of finality? No. It didnt.

Let's ask Mr Posnanski's question again, today. We'll suspend any disbelief for a moment and assume Bagwell was one of these non-users none of us want to "keep out" of the Hall. Would it have been better for the institution, or Mr Posnanski's America, to have enshrined "a hundred PED users" than to endure the moral outrage of yesterday's actual result?

Is forty percent for a "clean" Jeff Bagwell so odious and disgusting? So institution-rattling and beneath societal norms of fairness? Sorry, Joe, but it's empty talk, at least insofar as it applies to yesterday's results, given you condemned those who werent voting for Bags this year, based on what you felt were vague PED suspicions.

Here's a vague suspicion, Mr Posnanski. Your characterization that this amounts to a "rather comprehensive list" of users. Relative to what we knew five or ten years ago, I'd agree it's rather comprehensive, but that's not the relevant yardstick. That should be the scope and nature of, you know, actual PED use, and by that yardstick, I fear your list falls well short of 'comprehensive'.

The truth is voters are collectively buying time to better understand who did what when. Voters, at least the good ones, keep an open mind, and change it from time to time, based on developing circumstances. They need time to wade through the complexity and moral nuance, and cull myths from realities within a secretive society of major league baseball. Maybe you're comfortable with a presumption of innocence toward members of this entrenched society of lying and obfuscation on this very issue. Others arent so comfortable.

*** ****

OK, let's unsuspend disbelief. In two minor league seasons, Jeff Bagwell hit six home runs. In the majors, he hit 449, good for 34th most in history, between Yaz and Dave Kingman. If you remove PED implicated players (ie Manny, Sheff, Arod, Canseco, etc), Bags glides up nearer 25th place all time.

Here's a question for supporters who dont believe he used steroids. What numbers do you think he might've compiled if he had used steroids? How dominant do you think he would've been, over and above what he already was?

Would he have been as dominant as Manny Ramirez? Barry Bonds?Rail thin Barry hit 20 homers in half as many minor league ABs as Jeff Bagwell, and Manny jacked fifty in equivalent plate appearances. Jeff Bagwell was a late fourth round pick, described by one of his minor league coaches as having "no pop". Even then, he did some things well, like hitting for average and drawing walks. But he was an entirely different species from Ramirez or Bonds, who we are just as certain was clean in that era as we are certain he wasnt later.

You're asking others to believe that a 22 year old, six homer dude, legally morphed into one of the greatest sluggers of all time. A man who admitted using andro and creatine and who, after retirement, said he didnt have a problem with players who used PEDs. Yeah right. A fierce competitor who worked tirelessly within the rules, doesnt have an issue with contemporaries who stole an easy, unfair advantage?

I dont know if Jeff is just some monumentally non-judgemental buddhist who happened to fall in love with andro, and in a singular show of moral clarity, decided to stop there, but when it comes to the veracity of his baseball accomplishments, I do feel confident, if not 100% comfortable, with where the current burden of credibility lies.

Little Big Men

2011-01-05T20:23:00.008-07:00

Today was a pretty good day for the Hall of Fame. My entire ballot was:

Blyleven
Trammell

That's it...and Trammell was only slotted ahead of Larkin and Alomar because his earlier era gave me more certitude the heart of his HOF career was clean - not because I felt he was a better player.

I love Larkin and have no gripe with Alomar's induction in his second eligible year. I just couldnt affirm either and remain intellectually consistent with my loquacious bagg ing on Bagwell. Sure, Bags bopped more homers and was bulkier than any middle infield candidate, but my larger point had to do with the likelihood of squeaky clean greats dominating that particular, drug enhanced age. No matter what they "looked" like or what position they manned.

Apparently, the electorate isnt so shy about incorporating such into their collective judgements. Here's BBWAA's vote totals on most of the serious positional candidates:

Alomar   90%
Larkin     62
Bagwell 42
Raines   38
Edgar     33
Tram      24
Walker   20
McGwire20
McGriff  18
..........
Palmiero 11

The fellas in red were smaller guys who didnt hit as many home runs. They fared quite well as a group. You could argue voters simply felt they were better players, but I suspect it has something to do with them being less anabolically suspect than the bulky Bagwell, Walker, McGriff crowd.

Which, if so, may be blatantly unfair. Those three sluggers never tested positive and smaller guys have cheated by taking steroids too. But I still prefer a system, however flawed, that tries to account for powerful, illegal drugs that reshaped the sport.  At the very least, such an effort implies good faith.

Which is more than the system that brought us here.

What Voters Owe Jeff Bagwell

2011-01-02T17:07:00.032-07:00

We owe him an absence of false certitude regarding steroids.

-- I dont know if he used or not, and wont pretend that I know. I have doubts, however, suspicions if you prefer, and believe they're reasonable and considered, apart from whether they're actually true. There's giant distinctions between considering usage and asserting guilt, and voters shouldnt assert guilt just because he looked big or accumulated certain numbers.

We owe him our individual, earnest sense of fairness.

-- Subjective fairness (ie good faith) is a more appropriate standard here than "due process", a legal term where justice delayed amounts to justice denied. Jeff Bagwell's not rotting in jail.

This is about lifetime membership in a sports club. It's not about inalienable rights as much as reasonable judgement and fair treatment, which implies circumstance and treatment of others.

We dont owe him absence of rational doubt.

-- Some argue that we have no right to dismiss a candidate if we cant legally or logically prove PED use, but opting to pass on a first or second year hopeful in what often amounts to a 15 year consideration phase, isnt 'dismissing' anybody. The five years after retirement used to suffice for voters to decide on most (not all) candidates, but the additional chore of assessing admitted and suspected PED beneficiaries has complicated that calculus for some.

Others complain that making greats wait is illogical, sanctimonious and a glacial waste of time, but consider the avalanche of PED bombshells made public in the past five years - and how it's influenced (and clarified) candidacies. It's an unpleasant, but ultimately healthy long term process for the game and its singularly referenced history.

Second, many voters prefer to consider all information (including rumor and innuendo) before arriving at what are historic and irreversible inductions. Insisting that legal defense standards (ie inadmissability, presumption of innocence) be met before any voter dare entertain PED concerns, inappropriately hamstrings the electorate, which lacks legal power (ie subpeona, indictment, etc)  to resolve these concerns. Besides a few admissions and positive tests, all they have to work with, really, is a network of unsworn testimony, on and off the record, peeking through the cracks of a corporate legal system heavily slanted to hide what may be far more extensive anabolic use.

In light of systematically enhanced performance made public, that has already rocked public confidence, to further extend legally tilted player advocacy into HOF (ie legacy) discussions, is tantamount to sticking one's head in the sand. This isnt the privately controlled MLB phase, where cheating is protected and facilitated by owners, players and union. This is the semi-public phase, where writers get to consider, evaluate, suspect and ultimately rule.  It is not a legal or criminal defense forum for lawyers with a baseball hard on.

We owe him thoughtful consideration of his accomplishments, weighed in the context of era and history.

-- Absent drug context, Bagwell has the goods. Maybe not the glossiest traditional baubles, like 3000 hits or 500 homers, but his numerical profile is clearly Cooperstown worthy. Only Bonds, Pujols, McGwire, Thomas and Manny sport a higher OPS+, among contemporaries. His 79.9 career WAR ranks 38th all time.  Jeff Bagwell stood out.

And that's the uncomfortable problem. It's a circular argument that infuriates many, but we need to confront the chilling question of how likely, or even possible was it, for a clean player to dominate an era already dominated by anabolically inflated cartoon characters? His aging curve looks fairly normal, but Bags didnt just outperform clean peers, like McCovey and Gehrig did. When he unanimously won the 1994 NL MVP (and placed top 7 MVP four other times), he was rising above not one player pool, but essentially two. The public leaderboards were rife with admitted and suspected users. We know that now. Logically, it suggests he was either a) one of his era's best players, on steroids, or b) one of the ten or so greatest clean players ever, by virtue of surmounting this uniquely divided and unlevel playing field.

It's a frightening, broad question and at heart, not a moral one - at least not to me. I have quite a bit of empathy for PED users and wont punish or disqualify them on the grounds they're morally unfit for the Hall. For me, it's more a practical, quantitative concern about evaluating achievement, and adjusting or discounting PED-inflated numbers to more fairly rank against unenhanced predecessors. How credible is it to assume that a player fond of "bodybuilding", who SI casually mentioned used andro and creatine , cleanly produced superlative numbers in a gaudy, barely regulated, PED environment? Is it logical? Somewhat credible? Barely possible? I dont know, but I believe it's irresponsible to not care enough to think and worry about it.

Bagwell had broad based skills which enhance his case.  He didnt just bop home runs. A good fielder and baserunner - walked a ton. This softens my skepticism - not so much about whether he took drugs, but in terms of his objective baseball value that cant reasonably be linked to PEDs. And it likely influences how I ultimately treat him in the fifteen year voting cycle. I'm far less apt to summarily "dismiss" an all around player with a great eye, than I would a one-dimensional PED suspect like Sosa. Part of me wants Bagwell to get in. I admire all around performers, but I admire the truth more, and am willing to wait in hopes of getting closer to it.

An important aspect of that truth is that this isnt just about Jeff Bagwell. Or what's "owed" him. It's about a century and a half old sport granting its highest honor, and the integrity of that sport.  Not its overstated moral integrity, but its historical integrity and continuity. We need to be able to assess players across eras with some degree of confidence. And fairness. There's no question Bagwell was a statistical Hall of Famer.  The question is, did modern PEDs elevate him from something less than that?

Because this is also about  all the fine players who preceded him - who didnt use, or have ready access to, steroids and who didnt register a blip in Hall of Fame voting.   It's a damned long list of talented, hard working men with a couple thousand hits and nice periphs who will never get into Cooperstown. I dont doubt talent and hard work made Bagwell a good or very good major leaguer.

I question, however, the popular circulation suggesting those factors alone molded him into a clear cut Hall of Famer. Maybe it's true.  I just dont feel it's the most credible account out there right now. To my ear, his denials sound rationalized and self-contradicting, and ring false enough to reinforce nagging doubts about a significant body transformation and unusual power jumps in 1991 and 1994 - when he clubbed more home runs in 110 games than any Astro in a full season, dating back to 1962. And while creatine and andro were legal at the time he allegedly used, my understanding is that andro was generally used as an anabolic enabler, like vinegar in your salad. You wouldnt normally ingest vinegar by itself.

Maybe I'm wrong and we owe Bags the immortality that first ballot induction affords. If he really was clean and we make him wait, I certainly acknowledge a degree of personal "injustice". But that potential wrong, probably temporary, seems miniscule compared to the wholesale potential injustice of instantly enshrining a PED-fueled slugger, while decades of unenhanced, presumably comparable players never sniff Cooperstown. The living and remembered dead have interests too.

Lastly, understand that Bagwell's limbo is not primarily a product of sanctimonious moralists.  It's the direct spawn of MLB's top down disregard for the competitive "truth" (not perfection) sustaining its own game, and its negligent enforcement of its own ostensible "rules". Voters who respect continuity and history, and the procession of players who made it (including Bagwell), are regrettably but necessarily tasked with adjudicating the aftermath.

It's inevitable and messy and will endure longer than most fans understand or probably want.  Please direct complaints to the Commissioner's Office and Players Association, who cared so much about Jeff Bagwell's "interests" that they simultaneously helped create, complicate and jeopardize his legacy. And hundreds of others. I care about Bagwell's interests too, but not the same way the BBPAA did.  To me, the sport and the competitive (not moral) integrity of its highest honor is worth upholding more than any player's statistics, and it's going to take some time to figure out exactly where Jeff Bagwell fits.

He was unusually patient in the box, but now voters find themselves in much uglier confines, fashioned by baseball powers. There's no pretty way out. As before, patience should yield favorable, if less than perfect, results.

The Twelve Days of Kendrick

2010-12-21T11:45:00.004-07:00

On the Twelfth day of Kendrick, Earl gave to the Val-ley,

Twelve dollar no$ebleed$

Eleven interns dancing

Ten bills to Byrnsie

Nine-ty seven losses

Eight years of Derrick

Seven months of AJ

Six vile relievers

Fiiiiiiiive years luuuu-ziiiinnggg!!!!

**********

Four contrived "legends"

Three scape goats

Two sets of books

and a Far fetched Win Stra-tahd--geeee!

Disgruntled Employee Punks Lipdub?

2010-12-18T14:10:00.006-07:00

For years, locals have been mystified by what practical components could possibly comprise Derrick Hall's "Circle of Success". After all, there's been no objective success, on or off the field, to comprise, encircle or otherwise take credit for. As evidenced by rock bottom play and the lamest local ticket base ever.

Just last month, venerable diplomat Peter Gammons dissed the Dbacks' insular shangri-la, as seen all too clearly on this self-reverential lipdub,as "one of the worst franchises in baseball".

But thanks to what looks like a disgruntled employee (crashing the marketing department's song and dance at the 0:45 mark), we may finally have an answer to our circular question. Reading clockwise from the top, the no longer imaginary circle is comprised of:

Malfeasance

Combover

Culpability

Financial Fakery

Inexperience

Bob Feller

2010-12-15T21:34:00.005-07:00

In the coming days, accomplished pundits will share memories and write deserved obits. For now, I'll just say a legendary figure has passed and that he was one of my father's favorites.

There werent too many of those. Everyone remembers Rapid Robert threw nearly a hundred miles per hour, but if my dad was here, he'd want it understood that Feller's best pitch was the curve.

Here's our small tribute from a few years back.

Dbacks' Contracting Family

2010-12-15T15:11:00.038-07:00

For all the frothing Diamondhacks is famous for, it's never taken a shot at anyone in Derrick Hall's family. Or Jim McLennan's. In fact, when a guest here posted such ill-targeted remarks, they were immediately deleted. It's a thick, obvious line that any remotely respectable blog dare not cross.

What I'm about to say stems from longstanding, resigned bewilderment toward this front office, and absent anger:

Derrick Hall just crossed that line.

No, he didnt say anything about my family. But in the most impressive (and unintentionally funny) Dbacks' production in years, he has again cast doubt on his ability to lift a big city franchise above the most intimate, choreographed platitudes.

[watch video]

There is so much to absorb, admire and wince at in this landmark song and dance that I cant possibly fit it into one post. So for now, let's focus on the intro, where a little girl tells Santa all she wants for Christmas is Dback tickets. Nothing else, apparently, will do.

On its face, it's an awkward, eye-rolling bit. What actual kid would insist on Dback tickets in December? Even less so considering single game tickets arent on sale 'til March. But since Derrick's commercial passion play must go on (and on), even Santa merrily acquiesces to these dramatic conceits.

What's funnier still about this first in a parade of charades is that the little spokesgirl on Santa's lap is Derrick Hall's daughter. At least she looks like Hall (and his wife) and is cradled in his arms at the video's merciful end.

The indefatigable salesman, who has just orchestrated the lowest ticket sales in franchise history, dresses up his own daughter in a rather expensive looking video, as somehow representative of "little kid fans" pleading for Dback tix. I couldnt publish a spoof like that if I tried. My allegedly wobbly ethics wouldnt allow it.

They'll probably laugh it off and say "we were just having fun", but there's an insular quality to her starring (and uncredited) selection that, frankly, permeates the entire piece. Do these overly cheerful sales reps dancing around to that godawful tune realize sales are at an all time low? It makes one wonder what this crowd of smiling faces actually does for a living, besides grin and walk backwards. Maybe they're celebrating any form of employment or, from the looks of it, just being alive.

The ideal proxy to talk up Santa might be a youngster whose only club affiliation is heartfelt fandom, but I can tolerate an employee's kid. Real fans must've been hard to find in the weeks it took to put this shoot together. In fact, the only big scale casting calls Hall conducts are for the cynically inclusive privilege of purchasing Yankee tickets at premium rates.

But the President's daughter? The President, who insisted he was building a "championship-style" team and recently rebuffed any suggestions of "rebuilding"? The President whose enormous, misguided efforts have helped result in the smallest fan base ever? His little girl is supposed to infect us with innocent enthusiasm for her father's self-inflicted mess?

It's consistent with what I've been saying for years. Hall strategically fawns over individual fans he can exploit on air, for maximum and sometimes misleading effect, while generally failing to deliver to the extended family of ordinary and potential customers. The numbers, both at the park and on TV, speak for themselves. Times are so tough, apparently, he's ratcheted up the sappy boondoggle - now producing starstruck prototypes from within his biological family.

Towers Deals Montero For Lobster Salad, Deviled Egg

2010-12-06T18:51:00.038-07:00

ORLANDO -- In an apparent impulse move already drawing criticism, GM Kevin Towers swapped catcher Miguel Montero for a traditional upscale lunch at Disney's Dolphin Hotel.

"We still need a first baseman," cautioned Towers, "but I saw something I like - and acquired it. My appetite for old standbys is no secret at this point. "

Towers was quick to add that his lobster originated in the cold waters off Maine, and possesses better character than Pacific varieties or fish products often sold as imitation "lobster":

There's really no comparison. As soon as Jerry [DiPoto] saw "Maine" on the menu, negotiations took off in earnest. First with the restaurant. Eventually, with the resort manager himself. We feel we got best in class return at a fair value. Plus, the deviled egg.

Montero, who hit .266 this summer, becomes property of the Disney Corporation, and is rumored to be an inside candidate for a roustabout position on their popular "Pirates of The Caribbean" attraction.

More from Towers:

Assuming we dont think highly of Miguel would be a misread. He's got size, and with size comes strength. And with strength comes....numbers. Or, there are strength in numbers, is what I meant to say. The bottom line is, this was one helluva salad. Easy on the mayo. Dash of celery salt. Some are gonna say it was an impulse buy, but I feel really good about how my day went.

Attending Augie

2010-12-04T20:46:00.029-07:00

Derrick Hall's latest 'championship-style' juggernaut just waived adios to endearing utility imp, Octavio Augie Ojeda.

There was that "I think I can" fence scraping homer our favorite halfling barely hit in Baltimore once. The time a foe's sharp bouncer somehow found refuge inside Augie's size "S" jersey. And Ojeda's clean inning of comic relief towards the end of an otherwise forgettable rout.

But the versatile scrub once lampooned on b-ref.com as Honus Wagner's "Mini-Me" was also one of the more stately performers in a short franchise history.

He was, by most accounts, a well prepared role player, polite ambassador and low maintenance teammate. Across the infield, he flashed the assured hands of a mohel and tiny legs that churned for every bloop and well placed grounder as if his life depended on it - perhaps because his professional life largely did. Despite an obp better than most (.344 prior to 2010), Arizona's diminutive 'everyman' was routinely dismissed as an inadequate batsman.

The on base percentage didnt come easily. He rarely hit the ball hard, or far, and while he showcased quick bursts in the field, he wasnt especially fast on the longer straight to first base.

But the LA native used the full ninety degrees of fair territory in which to slap the ball. He also got plunked ten times in 2008, more than anyone on the team - and led in HBP again the following year. Which is notable for several reasons:

-- Ojeda had no existing penchant for this. ( In his first six big league seasons, he got hit by pitches a mere four times.)

-- The career fill-in never earned more than 264 at bats in a season.

-- He was a switch hitter, always batting against pitchers coming from "the opposite side", from where it is inherently more difficult to "freeze" a reluctant victim with a thrown ball.

This point deserves attention. Legendary scrapper Pete Rose switch hit for twenty four years and only got hit ten times (eleven, actually) in a season once - a campaign spanning 764 PAs. Mickey Mantle got drilled thirteen times in his entire career! Eddie Murray, just eighteen. So for a 34-35 year old, part-time switch hitter to get nailed sixteen times in what constitutes less than a full season equivalent, requires explanation.

Let's be clear. He was trying to get hit. Taking one for the team. Or, in this case, as many as sixteen. Like celebrated practitioners of the art, Don Baylor and Craig Biggio, but without the benefit of Baylor's physique or Biggio's blousy, oversized jersey fluttering over the black of the plate.

Augie Ojeda was more than a punchline or fungible mascot. Amidst peers fueled by comic book levels of testosterone, he exhibited uncommon physical courage. He embodied why many fans gravitate to and stick with baseball; because athletes lacking coveted 'combine tools' can still be relevant thanks to little more than doggedly refined skills and a professionally sacrificial ethic.

He was more than relevant in 2007, when Orlando Hudson, the Dbacks' second most valuable position player, went down in September with the team nursing a one game division lead. Ojeda, the inadequate batsman, hit .333 (.424 obp/.820 ops) the rest of the way, playing full time. With Hudson out and first half sensation Eric Byrnes slumping (.238 BA, .575 ops), the Diamondbacks held on to win the division by that one game.

Days later, Ojeda's 7th inning double against Carlos Marmol in a taut NLCS opener, positioned Arizona for it's first postseason win since Tony Womack did likewise in 2001, roping a more storied double to the same spot in right. After surviving the most vital at bat in team history, an emotional and religious Womack stood at second base and pointed to heaven.

When Ojeda stood there, the appreciative home throng broke into a rousing chant:

"Aw- Ghee! Aw-Ghee!"

He pointed inside the Diamondbacks' dugout, as if to say, "You're next" or "If I can do this, anybody can." The next batter, pinch hitter Conor Jackson, lofted a sacrifice fly to center, scoring Snyder from third, establishing Game 1's final 3-1 margin. With Ojeda still on the bag, a second, softer chant emanated from the bleachers:

"Eh-nee-bo-dy...Eh-nee-time!"

That was probably Augie Ojeda's defining moment. When a hard working scrub, an anybody, not only tangibly helped his team with bat and glove, but rubbed off on it in spirit and in deed.

We follow this game for our own myriad reasons. Some of us grew up wanting to be Mickey Mantle or Willie Mays, and vestiges of such vicarious pursuits still haunt old men. But there is more to glean from baseball than clinging to bits of superlative athlete's distant greatness. More worth remembering - and applying - in our modern lives.

Like striving to be just be relevant in a competitive world. Too often dismissed as a novelty, Ojeda sloughed off a lifetime of doubters - and bruises - to make a difference. To such a fellow, attention should be paid.

No Visible Means of Support

2010-11-25T10:16:00.000-07:00

In games allowing three runs or less, the 2010 Diamondbacks stumbled to the worst record for that split in the National League. Not helpful, when your pitching is already terrible and usually yielding more runs than three.

The record itself (37-22) doesnt sound too bad, until you contrast it with other teams' splits within the division:

Padres 70-16 +54

Rockies 58-14 +44

Giants 65-23 +42

Dodgrs 59-20 +39

That divisional range of 54 to 39 games over .500, represents a huge advantage over Arizona (+15), in a relatively small number of "like" games. Arizona held opponents to three or fewer runs less often(59) than any NL team except Pittsburgh (52), while our divisional rivals averaged over eighty. Part of that is because we're anchored in a hitters' park - and part because our pitching was subpar. ( By comparison, the high altitude Rockies managed 72 such staff performances.)

But in addition, as stated at the outset, Arizona managed the worst W/L percentage in these games, that teams are generally predisposed to win. It would seem that has little to do with pitching or defense, as that's essentially been controlled for. It's the offense that's not taking sufficient advantage of these well pitched games.

The Diamondbacks' offense inspires varied opinions, some not suitable for a genteel blog - or even here. They scored a league average number of runs while shattering fans' patience and the all time seasonal strikeout mark. Is their failure in well pitched games merely bad luck (random variation) or is it an embedded offensive shortcoming?

What's troubling about this is we made a similar discovery in 2009, using starters' Game Scores from Bill James Online. Then, the Dbacks sported a league worst record when their starter pitched well (Game Score 50-69). So it's not an identical finding, but it's consistent with the idea that Dback bats dont support their better pitching performances as well as we might expect, at least not based on seasonal run totals.

Based on seasonal runs, Pittsburgh and Houston were the league's worst offenses, by a considerable margin. They each scored roughly a hundred runs less than league average - and a hundred less than Arizona. Here are their records when they held their opposition to three runs or less:

Houston 60-15 +45
Pittsbrg 40-12 +28

What's going on here?

Bang For The Buck?

2010-11-21T17:12:00.011-07:00

The Diamondbacks' holiday wish list has grown longer than an antelope di*k, but at this point, what's the most pressing need? Where do they get the biggest bang for the...[wait for it]...buck? Let's eschew petty front office cracks that make (or made) Diamondhacks famous, and leap out of character to assess numbingly dull positional upgrades.

Fans generally overstate the importance of hitting, and are predictably worried about the loss of Adam "100 RBI" Laroche in favor of Juan "Who dat?" Miranda. The Cuban native, who defected successfully to the Dominican Republic on his seventh try (if you call that successful), may not match Laroche's production, but their projected gap in performance is dwarfed by the reputation chasm. Since neither Miranda nor Brandon Allen is a sure thing, however, having them compete for the job is healthy protocol. Perhaps most importantly, the $6M or so in net savings (from The Roach) can be applied elsewhere on the roster.

If we trade Upton, both outfield corners will need addressing, but it's not the positional side, truly, that ails the Diamondbacks. Despite the alarming strikeouts, their 2010 positional WAR was higher than it's been since 2002.

The Diamondbacks are reportedly interested in pitching, like you and I are interested in oxygen, and the first place to administer CPR is the bullpen. My favorite statistical measure of their futility is that, according to WAR, our most valuable RP, over the entire season, was Mike Hampton.

He pitched four innings.

Think about that for a minute. So, there must be new personnel. But there have also already been significant bullpen additions by subtraction. The departure of Qualls, Howry and perhaps most of all, AJ Hinch and coach Stott, mean that a fair share of Towers' task here is already done. And he's supposed to be adept at filling in relief personnel.

The roster component that doesnt get enough fan attention is the rotation. It, too, was bad - about twelfth in a fifteen team league (I dont count Pirates) - and it appears at least that vulnerable as we speak. Haren and Ed Jackson are gone. The ace by default is young Daniel Hudson, followed by I.P. Kennedy, Joe Saunders and Barry Enright. There's been talk of obtaining a fourth or fifth starter, someone who could slot just in front of - or even behind - Enright.

I think that would be a critical mistake, assuming A) the club is sincere in it's stated objective to contend and, B) Jarrod Parker isnt likely to have a major 2011 impact. So blundery, in fact, as to doom the Dbacks to mediocrity, regardless of positional upgrades elsewhere. Their biggest off season decision involves the quality of starter they obtain, either via free agency or trade. A back end starter all but assures a weak to medium rotation, something the rest of the team doesnt project strongly enough to overcome.

The acquisition of a front end pitcher, however, downshifts existing starters back into more appropriate 'slots', creating a multiplier effect in terms of matchup values and easing bullpen pressure. Put another way, this team wont win with Barry Enright as it's fourth starter. One can almost guarantee that. If there's three quality arms in front of him and Saunders, however, the rest of the team might be good enough to at least make some noise.

Skeptics may claim we had a front end starter (Haren) last year and it didnt do any good. But Haren didnt pitch like a front ender or remotely like an ace. Neither did Jackson. We dont need Cliff Lee, necessarily, but we need more than an innings eater. We need someone who is both durable and effective. Someone who impacts wins. Someone who moves the needle.

There is quite a drop off in the FA market after Lee, which is a two fold dilemma for Arizona. Only money will acquire Lee, leaving Kendrick out. And remaining or available free agents may not be good enough to vault Arizona where it says it wants to go.

So the only way, it would seem, to open up the labor pool and acquire a low 1-high 2 type starter is to trade significant assets. Which is where Justin Upton forcefully enters the picture (stage right). Upton will need to fetch more than that, of course, but the quality starter is the essential piece of the deal.

As the Upton saga unfolds, that's what I would keep my eye on. Not the closer or outfielder or prospect so much, that we're likely to receive in exchange. Look to the quality of the starting pitcher. It's our most important clue, to date, as to where this franchise is headed.

AFL Game Recap

2010-11-16T20:17:00.010-07:00

Caught a few Dback prospects today, in an AFL game over at Muni. Fans were greeted by this sign on the box office window.

Yeah, this definitely sounds like the Diamondbacks.

Here's LA's new skipper, Donnie Windbreaker, trying not to step over any lines that might irreversibly screw up his team.

It felt natural rooting against Don's Desert Dogs. His AFL squad represents five MLB orgs, including the Dodgers and Yankees.

It was a beautiful Tuesday afternoon, and everyone had plenty of elbow room. I love that.

You assume it's a groupie when they park the handbag on the dugout roof.

Here's AJ Pollock, the Dback's 23 year old OF prospect. He's listed at 6'2, 200 lbs, but is closer to 5'11, 180. He made a nice catch by the RF wall but didnt do much with the bat.

This is the star of the game:

Jerry Sands, LA's 23 year old first baseman.

Sands homered to center, homered to right, and hit the top of the CF wall for a double.

Here's a Dback fan, patiently waiting for them to land a prospect like Sands.

This is Arizona's LHB Mark Krauss. Big, patient three outcome guy.

How do I know he's a three outcome guy? He struck out, hit a homer and walked.

Here's the ballboy/ballteen. He looked 16 or 17. They've significantly reduced his assigned duties from when my twelve year old heroically assumed the position in this very park.

Odds N Ends:

-- I didnt mind the Dbacks' self appointed den mother, Susan Price, bellowing hoarsely throughout the game, from just over the third base dugout. Probably because I sat on the first base side.

-- No charge for parking. Would've seen a movie, otherwise.

-- It's interesting where fans choose to sit when they have the stadium to themselves and money isnt an issue. Clearly, most gravitate towards seats close to the field, but not to the point of crowding other fans. Personal space is still valued in our culture - highly valued, apparently, at an event as mundane as an AFL game.

Maybe that's something I resent about Cactus League evolution. One used to be able to spread out at the games, which enhanced my enjoyment, and presumably reinforced the optimal comfort zones of many others. Like today. But now spring games are so often packed; it's expensive and time consuming just to park, let alone get in line for a hot dog or a urinal, or wedge yourself between customers to sit erect and watch an exhibition.

Being in a packed house for a special event is great. Everyone should experience that. But when did a month's schedule of big league practice sessions suddenly become that special? The kind of top drawer entertainment that justifies fan expense and inconvenience heretofore reserved for playoff baseball or a Justin Bieber concert.

Just My Imagination?

2010-11-09T21:40:00.027-07:00

If Ken Kendrick aims to identify with something besides failure (like Valley fans, for a change), it seems our other local teams are co-operating. The Cardinals, Suns and Coyotes each have begun underwhelming autumns, after endearing playoff campaigns. Even ASU's bowl chances appear slim, despite seventy postseason slots.

The Diamondbacks are sure to create some buzz regardless, between Derrick Hall's $100 million dollar practice field and the All Star Game Bud Selig denied Jerry Colangelo (and Dback fans) for a decade. But if they could win - on top of that predictable corporate theater - in a Valley numb from losing....imagine the possibilities.

Just hanging in some semblance of a pennant race through June or July, Ken Kendrick's Diamondbacks could not only shed their longstanding laughingstock status, but might capture a ripe sports market as well.

Yet in a show of studied defeatism worthy of Kendrick himself, groupthinkers over at azsnakepit are already throwing in their proverbial Diamondbacks' dishrags...before New Years'. It seems they dont want Towers to acquire anyone too good (ie "expensive"), because they've done the math and decided we're not going to contend anyway.

Diamondhacks is more irresponsibly hopeful. The last couple years have been rough. Heck, the team's had a pretty miserable seven year run. But past performance doesnt dictate future results, especially after such a fundamental shakeup.
-- By parting with Eric Byrnes, Webby, Laroche, Heilman, Howry, Rodrigo, and trading off Haren, Ed Jackson, Snyder and Qualls, the Dbacks have freed up an enormous amount of payroll, while forfeiting less current and future value.

-- Towers can bump a 69 win roster (pythag) up to about 75 merely by acquiring 250-300 innings of replacement level pitching, which is easy and cheap to do. I imagine KT'll do better than that. If he can cobble together a league average staff - an admittedly taller task - they're up to 83 wins.
-- Every projected positional starter will be younger than thirty on Opening Day, and all (except Allen, who may not be here) now have significant starting MLB experience.

-- The most difficult, "defensive" positions to fill are already occupied by average and above average "two way" performers (ie Drew, Johnson, Young, Montero). Towers needs to backfill the most one dimensional positions (1B, LF) - and situationalize his bench - to enable an above average lineup.

-- MLB's least experienced and likely least capable coaching staff has finally been jettisoned. Normally, coaching changes dont amount to much, but the removal of Hinch and Stottlemyre may be significant exceptions. In a few cases, their unwelcome and amateurish contributions destroyed player confidence, and ultimately appeared to sap teamwide resolve.

I wont predict we'll win the division just yet. Towers' triage is ongoing and mostly what we know, so far, is who he doesnt want (ie LaRoche, Webb). But the contrarian in me does think this is a relatively expectant time to be a Diamondbacker. When online 'masters of the obvious' hold out very little hope, yet actionable possibilities abound. When seismic shifts in organizational direction suggest the destructive vestiges of at least Jeff Moorad's Reign of Terrible may finally be behind our 'snakebitten' franchise.

Just My Imagination

Mo' Power To Him

2010-11-01T15:25:00.025-07:00

This is mostly a baseball blog, and a World Series champion may be crowned tonight. But Diamondhacks is also about sports generally, and of course, me. So, first things first.

Maurice "Mo" Lucas died yesterday.

If you're forty or older, you may remember he was a fine basketball player, who willed Marquette to the 1974 NCAA championship game, and a few years later led the Trailblazers in scoring on their way to their one and only NBA title.

He was rough and tumble on the court, but also liked jazz.

Towards the end of his career, he played a few seasons with the Suns. In 1984, he was the oldest player on the roster (by two and a half years), seventh in minutes played - and still led the team in rebounds.

That year I was freelancing for a fledging sports weekly that, ultimately, didnt stick around. I was planning a feature interview with one of Luke's teammates, and the guy had stood me up a couple times already, with deadline fast approaching. I had a little reporting experience, in college and back east, but never interacted with, let alone interviewed, pro athletes before - and as a young, impressionable sports fanatic, was nervous as hell.

More nervous than you can imagine. I didnt know the first thing about NBA protocol, had no credentials to speak of, and waited in the lobby of the old Jewish Community Center on West Maryland, where the Suns used to practice, in hopes of intercepting my reluctant subject.

Just then, Coach MacLeod burst through the gym doors for a drink of water and noticed me standing around. At the time, he was the only professional coach in the Valley, in his twelfth year, and although he had obviously never heard of my pathetic publication, was uncommonly gracious and escorted me into a practice closed to the general public.

Adams. Lucas. Walter Davis. Up close. They were older than me and larger than life TV heroes. Maybe that's why I opted to interview one of their younger, less heralded teammates. It was too intimidating otherwise. Practice ended and we all headed for the locker room. I caught up with my subject, introduced myself, and we eventually found a spot to talk. It was still awkward, feeling each other out, until Maurice Lucas walked by. He said something funny, I dont remember exactly what, and put me in a 'playful' bear hug headlock that almost took my feet off the ground. At the time, I was about 180 pounds.

Let's put it this way. After you've escaped a Maurice Lucas headlock, and the blood's returned to your brain, everything else comes pretty easily. I lightened up, my taciturn subject opened up, and the interview went better than expected.

To this day, I dont know why Lucas enveloped a complete stranger like me. Maybe he was a free spirit, just horsing around. Or maybe he sensed a nervous kid in the lair of famous athletes and literally lent a hand. It's just a moment - a wisp of a decision - from twenty five years ago. But it mattered to me. Enough, so that when I heard Luke died Sunday, at 58, I felt like passing it along. During the World Series.

On a baseball blog.

Dbacks Load Up On Talent

2010-10-27T21:12:00.020-07:00

Arizona added four former All Stars to the coaching staff this month, brazenly altering the balance of power in next spring's annual student-faculty tilt.

Diamondback coaches havent prevailed over their charges since 2001, when Bob Welch outdueled pupil Randy Johnson, 1-0, aided by a sixth inning solo blast from hitting coach Dwayne Murphy.

"This is bull$&@#!", complained slated starter, Joe Saunders.

A week ago, Saunders prepared to face a faculty lineup diluted with Jack Howell, Bo Porter and Joel Youngblood. Today, the Kirk Gibson/Matt Williams-led order also features base stealer Eric Young, Hall of Fame-worthy Alan Trammell, and 1979 AL MVP, Don Baylor.

"Great. Who's our new outfield instructor?" asked Saunders. "Tony Gwynn?"

Money For Nothing

2010-10-25T19:00:00.018-07:00

The rumor Kirk Gibson is peddling Dodger memorabilia to distance himself from that organization sounds plausible - and characteristically fiesty. The 1988 Dodger MVP isnt parting with Detroit Tiger or Michigan State loot, and the auction comes right on the heels of Gibson's managerial extension in Arizona.

So this is a targeted discard and he doesnt appear financially wanting.

It has to sting in Tinseltown, even as Angelinos feign indifference. Captain Kirk (with Orel and Fernando) embodies that underperforming outfit's lone glory of the past quarter century - and now an icon's abruptly cashed in that emotional connection... apparently to further close ranks with his hapless Diamondbacks. The fledging franchise with tradition deficit disorder.

The fact Gibson's employed by a division rival is no big deal, nor is the auction itself, really. It's the reason he's initiated this, and the timing, that's fascinating - in a down collectible market, when he doesnt appear to be cash poor.

One has to wonder how much of this has to do with the McCourts. As dubious as Diamondback ownership is, the Dodger divorcees have broken barriers when it comes to major league brand desecration. Even Peter O'Malley betrayed his patrician clan's longstanding discretion by shrieking to the LA Times that Frankie and Jamie get out of baseball. (Maybe O'Malley 50's era decorum died with June Cleaver.)

*****

In other news, the Yankees were 'eliminated' - a euphemism for 'shat' - which better summarizes their week. When your $33M third baseman hits .190 and the $13M catcher appears eligible for assisted living, that's entertainment. In another display of clutchness, Mr November scored two runs in six games, no doubt saving up towards next month's quota, when imaginary runs attain peak theoretical value.

As tempting as it is, however, to mock New York's deified core, their ALCS downfall was mostly hastened by a profane 8.39 ERA from Sabathia, Hughes and Burnett. Unfortunately, the Yanks' timely collapse reinforces an illusion that MLB's predicated on competitive, sporting principles. The upside, of course, is...the Yankees lost!

*****

On The Bookshelf : Three Nights in August, published 2005.

The Scurvy Mob of Wannabe Sabr Rattlers and The Pother They Hath Wrought

2010-10-15T10:15:00.030-07:00

Are we really on the cusp of bestowing the Cy Young Award to a pitcher who didnt lead his league in ERA+ and who finished eighteenth in wins?

Felix Hernandez is outstanding and I wont belittle his thirteen victories for a wretched Mariners squad, but is this what the award named for baseball's All-Time winningest pitcher has come to? An achievement-based recognition granted from "peripherals" to the effective exclusion of the most obvious measure of competitive accomplishment and success itself?

Sabermetric rubes are so eager...

... to expose the historical overvaluation of pitcher wins that many have severely undervalued them in response. It seems the only way one can opt for the 13-12 Hernandez is to decide that his peripherals advantage outweighs a rather gaudy win deficit. Which is a troubling calculus considering the particular task at hand. We're not ranking neutralized ability (at least not with a straight face) or projecting future performance. The Cy Young Award rewards past accomplishment and competitive success within a humbling and often mysterious team environment.
How else to explain elevating Felix over other indisputably fine pitchers who contributed more wins to their teams? Actual wins, as opposed to theoretical, extrapolated "wins". The competition has marvelous peripherals too. It's not like Felix is pitted against Lamarr Hoyt or Pete Vukovich here.
[ Full disclosure: I voted for Greinke last year, despite the fact his Royals only went 17-16 in his starts. He was personally 16-8, and more importantly, led the AL in ERA+ by a wide margin over 229 innings. Nobody was within 2 WAR of that freak. The 2009 Mariners went 25-9 when Felix started, and in most years I'd vote for him. In a sense, that was really his bad luck season, foiled by Greinke's absurd career year.]
So wins are hardly the sole consideration - otherwise just Fedex the award to Sabathia. Nor are wins necessarily paramount, as few of 2010's army of starters with more wins than Felix are more CYA deserving. Contrary accounting would inflate pitcher Wins beyond their reasonable value in a team sport. But some of these "winners" are numerically outstanding, quite apart from anciently revered win totals.
Sabathia didnt just win 21 games; his 3.18 ERA anchored in an AL East bandbox is highly competitive. The Tigers went 21-12 in Justin Verlander's starts and his WAR is comparable to Fernandez. Clay Buchholz (17-7) sported a league high ERA+ from an AL East bandbox (although his 173 IP may exclude him from serious CY consideration.)
My Cy Young vote, however, goes to David Price.
-- 208 innings.

-- 2.72 ERA in the AL East
-- The Rays were a league best 23-8 in his starts. (By contrast, the M's were 17-17 when Felix pitched.)
Should we deny Price based on Hernandez' real but relatively thin superiority in neutralized, park adjusted "peripherals"? Denton True Young would be turning over in his grave. Hernandez was the best aggregate run preventer in the league. There's not much question about that. But that doesnt make him a sabermetric colossus striding over the competition some would have, the way Zack Greinke was last year. Greinke earned 9 WAR. Hernandez has 6 WAR this season and trails Cliff Lee and Verlander on the Fangraphs version.
He chucks for a wretched team in a superb pitcher's park against a mediocre division. And he does it very, very well. But David Price, pitching for an excellent team in a good (but deceptively less than superb) pitchers park, against better lineups, was equally impressive. In 31 starts, he yielded more than three runs just three times. ( In 34 starts, Hernandez did so four times.)
We've become so engrossed, and frankly, enamored with our disconnected fantasy world of underlying, homogenized "rate" stats, that we've corrupted them to fashion false edges, while eroding connection to the finite nine inning contests that define success and failure in actual games. We've misappropriated largely predictive tools of GMs and player agents to emptily redefine success.
Winning matters.

There. I said it.

It's still the most compelling measure of current success for a starting pitcher.

This avalanche of misplaced win disdain is apparently based on the earth shattering 'discovery' that Wins arent exclusively under the control of the starting pitcher. Well, duh. We've known this for a long time. The notion's appropriately gained some traction as relievers tackle more innings, but a starter is still positionally integral to a game's outcome, similar to a quarterback in football or a goaltender in hockey. Not exclusively, or even mainly, responsible in many cases, but over the course of a season, he's more responsible than any position player for the team's record in his starts.

We should look at but beyond pureed WAR and examine game logs and opponents faced to see that Felix, fine as he was, isnt the default champion here. Maybe if he yielded four earned runs less often than Price, instead of more often, he'd have a better case. What has our definition of pitcher success been twisted into? Has it devolved into a starter's run prevention per inning measures, sliced six ways, or his free market value, all based on peripherals? Is that all there is? Have we really become that vapid?

In the end, this case isnt against Felix Hernandez. It's simply a call to rebalance evaluative priorities, and to reestablish real time success as something that occurs on a spread of grass rather than on a spreadsheet.

2010 Hackies

2010-10-06T20:28:00.034-07:00

LIVE- from Diamondhacks' beautifully paneled conference facility on the shores of Otsego Lake, not far from the National Baseball Hame of Fall, it's the 2010 Diamond Hacks Awards! Known near and far as "Hackies", few presents impart the honor, privilege and just plain F-U-N of these pewter plated prizes.

The Devon White "Most Outstanding Player": Kelly Johnson

The Gonzo "Best Hitter" Award: Dan Haren

The Suzi Quatro "Stumblin In" Citation: Back to back to back to back

The Eric Byrnes "Most Offensive Hitter": Gerardo Parra

The Oddjob Trophy: Matt William

The Entire No Hitter From The Stretch Award: Edwin Jackson

The Steve Finley "I'm With Leather" Decoration: Chris Young

Most Inadvisable Front Office Remark: "We think we're close to having a championship-style team". --Derrick Hall, ARIZONA REPUBLIC, 4/22/10

Best Ex-Diamondback: Carlos Gonzalez

Best Pure Rookie: Barry Enright

Smartest Player: Rodrigo Lopez

The Chili With Stephen Recognition: None

Derrick Hall Selfless Tool of Humanity Loving Cup: Derrick Hall

The Randy Johnson "Best Pitcher": Ian Kennedy

The Jackie Robinson "Best Athlete"(Open division): Edwin Jackson, JUp

The Jackie Jensen "Best White Athlete": Kirk Gibson

The Adam LaRoche Best Second Half Award: Daniel Hudson, Stephen Drew

Worst Haircut

David Copperfield Illusion Award: Brandon Webb & Jonathan Maurer

The Scottish-American "Dumbest Race": Legends Race

Oprah's "Slowest Runner" Selection of the Month(every month): Adam LaRoche

The Max Scherzer "Hard To Look At" Award: Dontrelle Willis, Dr Michael Brown (retired)

The Friday Fireworks "Best Promo of the Year": Cullen Maxey Bobblehead

Charles Dickens' "A Tale of Two Seasons": Juan Gutierrez

The Jandek "Hardest To Listen To" Award: Daron Sutton, Derrick Hall
The Daryl "Best Ballpark Vendor" Award: Daryl

AJ's Signature Accomplishment: 7.5 games out of fourth place - in May.

The Alberto Callaspo "Nasty Controversy" Honor: SB1070/ASG Boycott

Best Stadium Improvement: Elbow room

The Fat Bastard Lifetime Achievement Award: Todd Walsh

The Jan Brewer "Most Painfully Overdue Removal": AJ Hinch

The "Sparky Anderson Bullshit" Award: Kirk Gibson

The AJ Hinch "Lamest Promotion Ever": Uptown

The Rod Allen "Second Lamest Promotion Ever": Mel Stottlemyre Jr

The Bill Bidwill "Owner Oozing Financial Responsibility"Award: Earl "Ken" Kendrick

The Betty Crocker "Fudge Brownie" Award: 2,056,697 alleged paid attendance

Most Likely To Balk In A Winning Run: Esmerling Vasquez

Daron Sutton's Most Embarrassing Moment: Broadcasting

Dbacks Draw 126,000 For Sunday Finale

2010-09-26T01:13:00.016-07:00

A record crowd of 126,112 attended Sunday's season finale at Chase Field against the Dodgers, according to CEO/President Derrick Hall.

It is the largest Arizona crowd to witness a sporting event since the third round of the 2006 Phoenix Open at TPC, and the highest attended event ever at Chase Field, which reports a capacity for baseball of 48,295.

"Standing room", explained Hall. "It surprised even us."

The record throng in the half empty stadium enabled the Diamondbacks to barely escape another seasonal low water mark for paid attendance, in what has been a humiliating year on the field, in the stands, on the road, against left handed pitching, across local, national and international political controversies, and against batters.

"Thank goodness for large unconfirmed group sales" said Hall. "This proves we have momentum and are on the right track. Drawing less than 2 million, especially after the Yankees visit, would not have established this kind of momentum. We're very excited about these numbers. And proud"

Previously, the largest Chase Field crowd occured on December 30th, 1999 when 82,450 attended a Rod Parsley miracle and healing service.

I Believe In Quick Turnarounds!

2010-09-25T15:48:00.014-07:00

Well, that's nice. That's what the Dbacks new GM, Kevin Towers, said! Truthfully, Diamondhacks believes in them too. In this division, and perhaps even, with this particular team. Why not? (Full disclosure compels me to reveal I also believe in pixies, pegasus and the healing power of Parsley.)

Assertions abound that two years isnt long enough for Towers to build much, yet NL West teams regularly contend despite considerable flaws. This offense is young and already competitive. The defense is decent. Towers has some money, and apparent expertise, to address significant pitching woes.

Certainly he takes this opportunity personally, betraying press conference platitudes aimed at his former employer. That's a good thing for us. So too is his extensive direction over a pair of NLW managerial rivals: Bud Black and Bruce Bochy. That sort of intimate divisional experience is worth more than a supple touch with the slide rule.

Kendrick's relative parsimony doesnt make a turnaround easy, but to suggest (as kvetchers from The Eternally Blameless Josh Byrnes' Society have) that AZ finances preclude even a last place team from contending next year is just sabr grapes. Especially as Jamie and Frank McCourt cartoonishly pull from opposite ends of their gilded rope, and Aubrey Huff leads SF toward the postseason. Any Arizonan can confirm that small payroll combined with injuries and an unaccountable culture is a recipe for disaster.

One wonders, however, if what we too cutely call "Jeff " Street is finally trending accountable. Does the hire of Towers, passed over (2005) and dismissed (2009) by Moorad, signal an emphatic end to Jeff's devastating influence on Diamondbacks culture? Or is it simply more window dressing on a decrepit house, eternally condemned by a Moorad protege (Hall), schooled to talk about winning but unqualified to deliver? To that point, it's hard not to get the impression that Towers did a better job than DiPoto of simply telling Hall and Kendrick what they wanted to hear:

-- I believe in quick turnarounds.

--Hopefully, we'll play the pinstripes in the World Series in a couple years.

--I'm more of a contact hitter kind of guy.

-- I build staffs backwards, starting with the closer and move backwards from there.

Is that a blueprint for success, or a blueprint for what made Hall and Kendrick respectively tingle and jingle? "I'm a specialist in fixing your roster's most glaring problems. Therefore, we can and will be successful, within your delightful payroll parameters!"

This rotation needs one, probably two arms. The bullpen needs an overhaul and the bench needs better specialists. The Dbacks dont need three unqualified successes to compete, but they do need to make inroads in all three areas. Does Towers have the resources and acumen to pull that off? I think it's possible. He needs to acquire or flip four positional players (2 starters, 2 bench) and four pitchers (1 starter, 3 pen). A big job, certainly, but it's not like he has to beat the Yankees or anything.

KT is a popular hire. Almost as popular as Gibson. The usual cadre of upscale but murky opinionistas are skeptical of the healing powers of both however, and specifically dismayed by the GM's short contract. But the same know it alls were categorically wrong about Josh Byrnes. What they didnt sufficiently appreciate, and Byrnes miserably failed to leverage, is that professional baseball is still an abundantly human endeavor.

JB assumed his job was to think and to lead and the players' role was to methodically accumulate VORP. His bizarre "Hinchstallation" proved just how tone deaf, or perhaps disdainful, he was of the human element. Byrnes managed to efficiency ratios and extrapolated per inning measures. Towers manages people and games. Towers sees a bullpen as a critical chain of custody. Byrnes settled on a random chain of fools.

There will be changes. But that doesnt guarantee success. There must be blood. New blood. And some spilling of the old. Towers' brief experience with Moorad may prove ironically useful there. As will his urgently short contract.

So much comes back to Moorad. He's taking credit for the quick turnaround in San Diego, that is largely Towers' doing. Most (not all) of Moorad's endless Arizona contracts are coming off the books. His estimated $40-50M franchise share there is still in "abeyance", an esoteric escrow invoked by Kendrick meaning "You arent screwing us again, Benedict Arnold". No short turnaround there.

Abeyance accurately describes the Diamondbacks position as well. It actually means suspension, and nobody knows whether Towers will turn results around or not. I just think it's too early, and kneejerk arrogant, to suspend belief in his potential to do so.

Blind as a Batters' Eye?

2010-09-20T11:00:00.013-07:00

Tomorrow's strikeout record holds little historical significance, when the Diamondbacks breeze by the all time seasonal futility mark. That's because our precious candy smackers swing away in baseball's most extreme strikeout era. Eight clubs have tallied 1300 Ks since Milwaukee set the standard (1399) in 2001, and the Marlins could be the ninth next week.

The record does carry contemporary significance, however, for several reasons:

-- Arizona makes less frequent contact than their competitors, which means quality contact is that much more critical when bat does occasionally meet ball.

-- They are not tiptoeing past this standard. It's sobering to consider that if whaler-in-chief Mark Reynolds had been replaced all season by a third baseman making average contact (somebody has to make those 600 plate appearances), the Dbacks would still own the dubious record by season's end.

-- They are doing this playing half the schedule in a hitters' park, featuring what is universally recognized as an advantageous "batters' eye".

This last point stands out, because strikeouts are so often associated with seeing the ball. Everybody hits better at Chase, in terms of homers and OPS. You'd think the windfall would extend to strikeouts, but Arizona wiffs more at home than anyone else and their K rate isnt appreciably higher on the road either.

I had theorized that maybe the batter's eye was in some ways a crutch and that an ocular countereffect might be occuring. Our team performs more often under these excellent visual conditions, and wondered if some of them werent developing lazy visual habits. Somewhat analogous to playing a video game on an easy level, "playing down" to that level, then struggling when you ramp up to "normal".

There is evidence the Dbacks emerge from spring training some years, hitting unusually well in April, with their effectively "new" background once they head north, and then the bats kind of fade as the seasons wear on. But I'm not sure if it applies to strikeouts so neatly. This year, for example, Arizona led the NL and majors in that category every single month, although interestingly, Toronto just nipped Arizona for the April mark.

The bigger factor, certainly, is the players that Josh Byrnes valued and acquired. Relative to other teams, the Dbacks started to strike out a lot in 2008, despite the fact all the core "offenders" excepting Upton, were full timers in 2007. Reynolds, Young, Drew, Snyder. Their collective strikeout rate has actually increased over time - and with experience. Could that be a long term batters' eye issue? Coaching and approach? Or something else?

Beyond the why, how important are all these swings and misses? That can make for a colorful debate, let me tell you. And it's not as simple as it sounds. We know that plenty of marvelously productive hitters strike out a lot. And that high strikeout teams score a fair amount of aggregate runs. But we also know that high strikeout pitchers are generally more successful. By successful, I mean recording outs and winning games. Strikeout pitchers limit the overall number of balls put in play, and may also better dictate the distribution of aggregate runs (ie by reaching back for a K at critical junctures).

Even those of us who recognize there's not much of a relationship between a lineup's seasonal strikeouts and total runs, also realize it would benefit the Dbacks to get more men on base - all else being equal. If it's true that pitchers can manipulate game results to their advantage via the strikeout, it stands to reason there are manipulated lineups out there, and we should acknowledge the most vulnerable among them.

Clowns

2010-09-15T13:00:00.029-07:00

Time to get back in the swing, after digital and biological viruses slowed me to a crawl recently.

-- Speaking of swing, Gibby's insistent hackers are poised to whiz by the all time seasonal K mark, perhaps as early as this weekend. Contrary to widespread speculation, only the Braves (27.2%) swing at fewer pitches out of the strike zone in the National League. The Dbacks are actually very disciplined, as further evidenced by their excellent walk total. When they do swing however, they make less contact - far less - than any team in the majors. This applies for pitches both in and out of the strike zone. In short, the problem isnt swinging - it's missing.

-- We all knew AJ Hinch was a Josh Byrnes "guy". Diamondhacks doubted the promise of that relationship the day the hire went down. But it's only now we can better appreciate what a control freak Josh must've been - and the price the organization paid for not reigning him in. It's not enough to say AJ was extending JB's philosophies to the dugout. Due to almost catatonic front office deference, Josh Byrnes became the manager of this team, in absentia. It's clear now AJ was just kinda "there". A formality, for appearances. A uniform to complete the charade that anyone in the dugout was leading anything at all.

-- Pete Rose was one of the few people last week to attend a game in Cincinnati. Bud Selig apparently gave the now contrite hit king "the okay" to step on the field and stomp on first base, much the way Selig and Rose have stomped on the game's virtues. Rose shouldnt be honored with a Cooperstown ceremony. Not unless MLB formally declares that dugout personnel betting on games isnt an issue. That hasnt happened. Not yet anyway.

-- In Arizona, now that immigrants are barely visible, the bogeyman terrorizing our state this week is a supernaturally nimble biathlete tweaking girls' tits - from his bicycle. This latest, wanton crime spree has raged across America's most populous college campus for ten months - in broad daylight - with no suspect in sight. For that alone, you have to believe he's not Hispanic. Perhaps if we had more federal troops, we could be absolutely certain.

-- In other news, Brandon Webb feels good.

Poll: Please Go Away

2010-09-14T12:20:00.003-07:00

What Diamondbacks fixture shouldnt return in 2011? We provided ten choices, and despite the abomination playing itself out across National League diamonds daily, you didnt choose the manager, GM or any player. The overwhelming favorite, or least favorite actually, was this bobblehead.

Dr Brown, it seems, has a way of getting under people's skin. And no, I'm not talking about his patented "Brown Procedure", which after a thousand or so illustrated re-enactments I've managed to glean involves shoving a long glistening probe into other people.

Here's the figures you could next most do without. Yes, Gracie, we really do want you to....er....finish. Followed by Daron Sutton, with three votes.

New Poll, at right>>>>>

Hold The Relish

2010-09-06T23:54:00.030-07:00

Went to the ballpark today and, surprisingly, nothing hit us in the head. This is my lousy photo of the commotion over Buster Posey's airborne lumber.

I told you it was lousy. The bat flew about twenty feet over Derrick Hall's head (like a sabermetric chat) and he's in there somewhere, underneath that gaggle of gawkers, no doubt raising a grateful customer from The Dead, or worse, obscurity.

It was a taut and entertaining game - scoreless through ten - and my first visit to Chase this season. Here's the Labor Day "crowd" at first pitch:

31K announced. Click on the picture and you'll see how many empties there are in the "full" sections. We sat just beyond third base, in a pair purchased on ebay for $12.50 each.

The corporate and organizational presence seemed less obnoxious than before. Once adored Rallybacks have been scaled back, and I like to think Diamondhacks voters and other online critics played a small part in that development. Perhaps there'll come a day when they are wiped completely off the face of the earth. Not you, dear readers - the Rallybacks! Regrettably, Mike and Vanessa remain, and KachingKo and an ill conceived Legends Race have been added to the surviving programme of relish races, kiss cams and other fan oriented hijinks.

Even so, there seemed to be less shrill, between inning, crapola going on. No shreiking advert for the Team Shop. Not as many ads on the jumbotron. No coaxing from "Mike" to get on our feet, in a close game. Audibly, it was less like an NBA production. The atmosphere still stinks (which I'll elaborate on below) but they've toned it down from historically embarrassing levels.

I bought two 'value' hot dogs and a huge diet Pepsi - for $9. Value is a euphemism for "cruddy kid's hot dog in a soggy white bun" - but why complain? There are three kinds of ballpark food - pricey fare that's tasty or interesting, overpriced, overpreserved junk, and finally, if you're lucky, marginal eats for relatively cheap. I endorse two pathetic little franks for $3, even if the mustard's inferior to the ballpark Gulden's of my youth. It's close enough, and I've long resented MLB's phasing out of reasonably priced concessions.

I've been defending our fan base for years, in countless online squabbles and flame wars. In some respects, we get an unfair rap from those who assume Yankee Stadium or Fenway exemplify the kind of behavior we should all aspire to. But I was saddened by our fans today, to a point of upset.

I'm not really loud at the ballpark, and no, nobody told me to sit down or shut up. I watch every pitch and dont merely enjoy "going to the game" and the idea of a day out with lots of other people. That's fine, but in addition to all that, I enjoy baseball. I relish the competition and tension and appreciate the proficiencies, cycles and rhythms. In the eighth inning, Ian Kennedy was shutting out a pretty good hitting team, driving for the NL West flag. In our bandbox.

He induced the still dangerous Sandoval to pop up. I clapped hard. Then two fastballs to Cody Ross and IPK buckled him with a curve. Strike three, looking. I let out an almost involuntary yelp. There's two outs in the eighth, a shutout, and no one's with me. Not with me so much, like I'm the Pied Piper of anything.

Nobody's like me!

Not in my general area of several hundred fans. Nobody's as focused on, or as viscerally into, the game. I cant overstate how depressing that felt. I've been in grocery stores with more energy and Little League grandstands more focused on play between the lines.

Kennedy struck out Renteria on eight pitches, and by then he got a decent hand and a few people like me stood up and applauded. But that's more of a formalized, self conscious act, where you're not only praising the pitcher. You're also following a bit of a script, like standing up with two outs in the ninth.

The lack of spontaneous engagement, before that, was striking. Many have talked about this, including me, but this was more pronounced than I've ever experienced. BOB was obviously never Fenway in terms of acumen or enthusiasm, but it didnt used to be like this. There used to be a minimum standard of attention that's somehow eroded. I remember Brandon Webb, before he was famous, throwing excellent games in 2004, when we were thirty, even forty games out - and a core of fans would at least get into his efforts. More than today anyway.

Today's Diamondbacks fans are numb. Like in a wax museum. My wife thought it was the losses, and offered that maybe my section was full of season ticket holders who've been numbed into submission by that. It's probably true but there's more going on. Something else, whose manifestation was never more clear to me than it was today. Perhaps because I've been away for a while. The crowd responded to canned prompts but I was genuinely chilled by how it responded to almost nothing emanating from the actual game. How quickly they reacted to the scoreboard and how lethargically they responded to athletic action, if at all. It was almost Orwellian.

I recalled what Derrick Hall told me two years ago when he graciously afforded me a preview of his soon to be activated mega-scoreboard. He was bursting with excitement, sharing how studies showed fan eyeballs gravitate to big flashy screens more than previously assumed - and even more than to the game in some cases - and how he really wanted to take advantage of that.

Today, as a truly wonderful game went by, all but unnoticed, I felt old and odd and more than anything, irrelevant. Surrounded by a stadium full, or half full anyway, of wrinkled wax bird dogs and a produced generation of automatons.

Here's a picture of IPK, in the middle wearing the helmet.

It's the bottom of the eighth and he's just laced a double and tagged up to third, representing the game's sole run at that juncture. Bochy is making the first of three pitching changes in the frame (see background), and Kennedy hung out in the dugout to get a drink of water and rest. He did this a couple times. I'd never seen that before. Turns out he was gassed and didnt even pitch the ninth. No disrespect to Ian, but Gibson's gotta manage his resources better than that.

Every Dback has their photo encased on a concourse pillar. Here's Gibson's, located beyond the left field bleachers. Note how they've yet to update his managerial status, after two months. Gibson was also "out in left field" when Montero got hit with a pitch, wasnt awarded first or even a ball for the high and tight pitch. Kirk approached the plate, but it doesnt say much for his rhetorical influence or grasp of the rules that he didnt even force an umpire conference on such a blown call. Even AJ Hinch would've earned a reversal on that.

On the other hand, his banged up team played well if not triumphantly against the best pitching staff in the league. There were mistakes; a missed bunt and Ojeda froze on a grounder that Drew ran away from to cover a steal attempt. But the mistakes didnt snowball and loom like they often seemed to under his predecessor. The Diamondbacks didnt beat themselves. They lost because the Giants have a deeper bullpen. So often, late in the season, when one team's contending and the other isnt, the late innings of a game take on an inexorable quality. One team wants it, the other eventually lets them take it. This game wasnt like that.

Even after SF went up 2-0, Arizona rallied against Brian Wilson. He reached for 97 against Laroche, who was stinging balls all night, including a fence scraping fly out in the sixth. With Kelly Johnson on first via a walk, Laroche blistered a sinking liner to center, snatched by Andres Torres for out number two. When Montero whiffed to end the game, the Giants leapt up in the air in excitement. They had outlasted a real team and this contest was also up in the air until the final pitch. They didnt need to consult the scoreboard. They were too caught up in the game.

Poll: Dback Fans 'Disappointed', Trend Republican

2010-09-03T07:25:00.011-07:00

Results are in from our latest poll. According to Diamondhacks readers, the 'typical' Dbacks fan is:

disappointed - 7

Republican - 3

Cullen Maxey - 1

fat 0

valued 0

undiscerning 0

Pretty self explanatory. The last place finish has left fans red faced, and we're a red state. Cullen Maxey, vice president of something or other, tallied one odd vote, for being representative of something or other. (We know this, because that was our vote.)

Of course, no one selected "valued", but the shutout of both "fat" and "undiscerning" came as something of a surprise, as anyone who has been to a game lately or frequented Dback message boards, can attest.

New Poll, right, about moving the franchise forward >>>>

Thanks for voting !

Flip Flop Til You Drop

2010-09-01T12:20:00.002-07:00

There's a rigid familiarity to the presentation of baseball statistics, even among the inspired giants of the free online genre, like Sean Forman and David Appelman. As great (and as useful) as their creations are, it's a welcome pleasure to find a stats site pulsing with quirky content and an intense visual style. Craig Robinson's Flip Flop Fly Ball is such a place.

I came across it a year or so ago and only just returned to enjoy his marvelous "infographics", several of which may hold particular interest to Diamondbacks fans.

For example, here's Robinson's calendar representation of professional baseball in Arizona. It illustrates better than I ever did what an embarrassment of riches Arizona baseball fans already enjoy throughout the year - even though Robinson excludes ASU's extensive schedule.

Then there's his team-by-team take on 2009 Ticket Prices. A different way of looking at data that Derrick Hall and MLB incessantly want us to look at their way. Is this a definitive analysis? Hardly, but see if you can look at Robinson's chart and keep yourself from grinding your teeth a little, thinking about Hall's peppy "lowest prices in baseball" campaign.

Finally, here's a cute little story, just regular ol' prose this time, he wrote regarding one of Randy Johnson's many victims.

There's lots more, about baseball and other stuff.

Enjoy.

Wallscrapers

2010-08-27T16:00:00.020-07:00

Derrick Hall's getting hammered again, but in a monumental and potentially world changing turn of events, not by Diamondhacks. After dividing Dback fans with price walls, uniform walls and loyalty walls, our business school CEO has graduated to a less destructive field: knocking down outfield walls at The Lovely Morgan. Kids at azcentral.com, however, are up in arms:

Our 2001 champs didnt need a bigger field!

We need a new bullpen, not new dimensions!

Bob Loblaw.

Thanks to raw distance data at hittracker.com, I was able to derive some distinctions about the 169 home runs hit at Chase through August 26th.

HRs Hit By Diamondbacks: 79
HRs Hit By Opponents:90

Dback HRs of 400 ft or more: 47
Opponent HRs 400 ft or more: 44

Dback HRs 390 feet or less: 15
Opponent 390 feet or less : 30

Dback HRs 380 feet or less: 8
Opponent 380 feet or less: 15

I'd like more data before renting wrecking balls, but preliminary implications are pretty clear. The Dbacks dont hit as many wallscrapers as their pitchers yield and making a case we might net benefit from slightly larger field dimensions sounds reasonable. Presumably the club's resident Zhang or Ng has scoured over historical data, under the supervision of someone like Cullen Maxey, but in case they havent, the Diamondbacks should feel free to use our findings.

In Young and Upton, we also have fast outfielders who can presumably cover "extra" territory defensively. This is just a guess, but even with Brandon Allen in left, the projected marginal ad of a larger field probably favors the Dbacks over most visiting outfield troikas.

It's an idea worth exploring. Not as a substitute for upgrading the roster with $30-40M of suddenly available payroll. But to augment those anticipated improvements, with an eye towards competing in 2011. Breaking down walls is a good start.

What's Wrong With Legends Race?

2010-08-23T10:18:00.038-07:00

Legends, l to r: Nomar, JT Snow, Jeff Suppan, Don Mattingly

There's the glaringly obvious - these oversized puppets barely resemble the Diamondbacks in question. The Matt Williams doll looks more like Mark Grace than the Grace version, and Gonzo's schnoz looks alarmingly like Nomar Garciaparra.

The bigger problem is that front office "hangers on" Grace and Williams were about as legendary as Robin Ventura and Al Oliver over their careers. For other teams. By the time they got to Phoenix, they werent even our best players. Exporting the idea they are Dback "Legends" looks provincial and undiscerning and degrades the sport-wide currency of the term. Not to mention the larger franchise contributions of Steve Finley and Curt Schilling.

This decidedly "B" heat that stumbles around during the fifth inning of each home game hardly celebrates our history. It demeans it, by calling attention to the fact that (other than Randy and arguably Gonzo), ours is an immature and understandably shallow superstar heritage.

The Dbacks Legends Race is loosely lifted from popular sausage and President sideline schtick in Milwaukee and DC and captures their generic silliness - but Derrick Hall complicated that by reaching for commercial payoffs with his choice of characters. He's not merely suggesting, inaccurately, that we're a baseball town with four legitimate legends. He's corrupted the very "legends" concept, by favoring and aggrandizing less than legendary figures with current front office associations.

Other cities' races are endearing and ours is so awkward because sausages and Presidents are genuine sources of regional pride - quite apart from baseball. These promos are overtly silly respites from the game - not a barely veiled front office ploy to reconstitute fan affiliations with past franchise glories.

What might have worked better?

Something playfully branding Arizona instead of trying too hard to rebrand a flailing franchise. A race to amuse fans rather than convert them. My idea is a rebrand of the state's historic 4 "C"s - a cowboy, cactus, coyote and feminine cougar, in the modern spirit of the term. Keep it clean for families, of course, but interplay with the cowboy could be entertaining.

Two objections arise. Many locals loathe the tired cactus coyote cliche. Those people are insecure losers. Milwaukee's sausages endure and endear because the local culture's poking a little fun at itself. Saguaros and cowboys are harmless cliches that bond fans and reflect a unique sense of place. Nobody wants to see a trendy foreclosure puppet or racing Intel plant.

Second, some big Mormon investor may object to a coquettish cougar. (In Arizona, it seems big Mormon investors are all over. In fact, the race would be more locally representative if the cowboy was replaced with a Mormon investor, but I digress). The key is to portray the cougar tactfully. Make her work on an innocent level, for kids, and let knowing adults enjoy the innuendo.

Hampton Comes Alive

2010-08-22T01:02:00.030-07:00

(I'm In You - MHampton 2011)

The upside, I suppose, of raising Mike Hampton from the dead is that, unlike comps Johnny Podres and Darryl Kile, Hampton is reportedly still alive.

Better yet, Jerry DiPoto conjures his ex teammate as a reliever, so no worries about hard hittin' Mike anchoring the 2011 rotation - anchoring, as in "pulling it down to the bottom of the Mariana Trench".

This sounds more like a motivational gig for the 148 game winner and two time All Star. DiPoto hopes Hampton's vibes rub off on our unmusical pen this September, and that he chimes in whenever appropriate. Show Me The Way, as it were.

It's a program sure to be panned, but even if Mike isnt pitch perfect in The Show, perhaps he can conduct a stirring inspirational pitch ( a la Tony Robbins, albeit one with less teeth). DiPoto has targeted a young bullpen's blues and made a concerted effort to amp up its intensity with an old maestro who knows the score.

Do You Feel Like We Do?

Poll Results: Most Humiliating Aspect of Dback Fandom?

2010-08-19T00:37:00.017-07:00

#1 Humiliation!: In game hosts, Mike & Vanessa

#2 Humiliation! (tie): Mark Reynolds K's...

....and locally contrived "Legends" race

#4 Humiliation! (tie): Captain Unctious, Daron Sutton...

....and Hall's postgame Wiggles Concert

(image courtesy of jillian @ dbbp.org)

** Thanks to everyone who voted. You are, for the most part, fine Americans!

*** Losing games didnt even crack our Top Five, and took a proverbial back seat to humiliation "driver", Derrick Hall (pictured), who's responsible for all but one of the highest rated embarrassments.

Dbacks Unveil World's Largest Lounge

2010-08-16T19:57:00.051-07:00

The Diamondbacks and HKS Architects disclosed plans today to erect the most expansive players' lounge in the history of professional loitering areas. Dubbed The Colossal Players' Lounge at Talking Stick, the $100M compound located near Indian Bend just west of SR101 is expected to open for stretching and bullshitting sometime before the Diamondbacks travel to Taiwan.

Amenities include whirlpools and massage tables, sofas, flat screen TV's and even an on site post office and pharmacy, late add ons suggested by coach and part owner, Matt Williams.

Grass and bushes (pictured, foreground) will be planted just north of the 75,000 sq ft compound. Contingent on any remaining funds, an under - sized "ballpark" is proposed for the southern third of the property. Ordinary people may squat on grass mounds in this auxilliary area, and pay to watch players scratch and spit after exiting their exclusive, state of the art facility to the north.

About Town

2010-08-15T21:04:00.009-07:00

While we disparaged the All Star Game, injected perspective into Gonzo Nite, and made fun of Jim McLennan, Gibson's Gang punched out a nice little two week run (9-4), all but ignored here. At this point, someone needs to report Diamondhacks as a hate site.

Oh sure, we could re-establish the illusion this isnt a hate site - and pretend to dispassionately analyze us some ball. But why bother? Seriously, we'd written several paragraphs about the state of the team and all the personnel upheaval.
But you can get that blah blah blah anywhere.

Under the guise of an "interview" w/ Todd Walsh, Derrick Hall allotted himself several minutes of face time in the middle of Friday's tight game, to prattle on about his visit to Air Force One and The White House. Hall's insight about the plane? It's "really big."

Today's game, the one with Strasburg, was interrupted by more interesting folk; what sounds like a fairly well organized militia of SB1070 protesters, who ran onto the field in staggered waves, somewhat confounding Nats' security. I say "sounds" because TV doesnt show people interrupting the game - unless they're Derrick Hall. The article indicates a two minute game delay, but I'm pretty sure it was longer than that. A number of Diamondbacks were shown smiling or laughing at the hijinks; Mark Reynolds was doubled up with laughter at one point.

Locals are hopeful, even excited, about DiPoto's young flingers, and why not. There hasnt been much to get behind at Chase Field (except "getting behind" in games), so you can feel fans latching onto this pleasant development. Visions of Jarrod Parker coalescing with Hudson, Enright and Kennedy, into a fabulous, futuristic front four.

But how meaningful are the recent performances? Predictive tools like BABIP and xFIP suggest everyone's pitching over their heads, most notably Enright. I wont belabor the point. You can do that at Fangraphs. The upshot is that probably only Hudson can confidently be projected as an above average major league arm - and he's pitched 57 ML innings. The others arent bums, but they're not apt to be difference makers either. My more daunting concern is durability, as just Saunders has a 150 IP season under his belt. As well as the newbies have debuted, that may be a structural crisis that's (as James Earl Jones might intone) "waiting in the wings".

It's funny how the personnel upheaval has degraded fans' underlying expectations. A principle that hastened the departures of Haren and Jackson was the club's reasonable assessment that 2010 no longer mattered. Trading veterans for kids doesnt change that, people. These games still dont matter in any current competitive sense, any more than if Dan Haren stayed and flung shutouts for our entrenched losers. To the extent 2010 experience helps next year, it's largely counterbalanced by the benefit to NL hitters of exposure to our "front four".

Well paid veterans' accomplishments are generally taken more for granted - whereas fans reserve a lower, more lenient, standard for unknowns. This contributes to the recent buzz and fuels the FO's carefully choreographed "illusion of progress" I warned of months ago. As predicted, Hinch was dismissed after the brutal June schedule (similar to Melvin's firing a year earlier); not so much to generate wins or make the team objectively better, as to launch a subjective new frame of reference - from which fans can more easily approach a reeling organization. The Gibson Era, if you like.

"Look! He's winning with a bunch of kids! They're playing better baseball!"

That's the results oriented "analysis" diehards crave and the storyline Derrick Hall will feed and exploit. But the reality is the new, "improved" club is still .400 under Kirk, against a pretty soft schedule. It just doesnt seem as bad, because Hinch and Byrnes have been deemed "responsible" for past failures, and we see new faces doing some positive things.

The reality, however, is that this roster lost alot, besides payroll. It loses 400 projected seasonal innings from established workhorses, and despite what transpired this year, Haren & EJack innings evaporate towards the front of the rotation, not the back. We lost our matched pair of two-way, major league able catchers. Say what you will about Snyder's contract and negativity - his absence increasingly ties 2011 fortunes to Miguel Montero's uncertain durability.

As Gibby's crew was rolling, Mark Grace riffed that DiPoto moved some guys who "didnt want to be here", in favor of enthusiastic newcomers. He meant Snyder and Haren primarily and Haren's remarks upon joining the Angels leave little doubt Grace is right. What rings false, however, is the implication Haren's disgust somehow cost the team wins, relative to going to battle with his enthusiastic replacement. Even in his summer of discontent, Haren managed 3.1 WAR, more than twice that of Saunders, his transactional counterpart.

Grace implied the Diamondbacks were winning now by accumulating players who "want to be here". Maybe that's true, if all other factors are equal or controlled for. But they never are, and an unhappy Haren helps his team more than a cheerful Joe Saunders normally will. Acquiring happy players or personalities wont cure what ails the Dbacks. They need to get better players and get the most out of the players they have, via improved scouting, coaching, management and ownership.

Finally, the dorkiest local political ad rolled out of AZ this week. Dan Quayle's thirtyish son, who failed the bar and grew up almost exclusively in DC, posing as a principled, "get er done" outsider who will shake up Washington. Are we still in the era when an utterly undistinguished, entitled princeling like this, could actually win a House seat, on the strength of megafunds from his father's friends - including George H.W. and Barbara Bush?

Quote of the Day

2010-08-13T11:35:00.016-07:00

From Dirty Gary over at dbbp.org:

The dbax are only "cheap" because of the significant discount they give on season tickets compared to the single-game price. The average single-game ticket at Chase isn't much cheaper than those at OAK or SFG. It's just that those Clubs don't offer near the discount on season tickets.

So the Diamondbacks can brag all they want about having the "cheapest" tickets, they're only cheap for those that can afford to buy a full season's worth. Otherwise, they're right in line with other markets that maintain much higher per capita/household/family incomes.

That's it in a nutshell - perhaps not "right in line" with Bay Area prices as much as they were a couple years ago, but this is what I've been frothing about ad nauseum since puberty. I should add I went to an April game in Oakland - for $2 a seat -and despite being a long time Phoenix resident, havent visited Chase Field this year.

Dback Tix Unreasonable, Says Scottish Authority

2010-08-12T15:08:00.038-07:00

After defending MLB's most regressive ticket pricing model for half a decade, Sir Jim McLennan decided, on Thursday apparently, that Arizona Diamondback tickets are too high.

"... the [price] gap has grown to the point that it has often been cheaper to buy a season ticket holder's unwanted seats on the secondary market, rather than from the ticket-office.

I'd also like to see dropping of single-game prices."

A glacial reckoning, considering these price gaps grew most between 2005-2007 - and were actually larger three years ago in many areas of Chase Field than they are today. What will intrepid Jim warn us of tomorrow? Leasing office space in the World Trade Center?

But all's well that ends well, I suppose, and it appears our 'pit boss recognizes and is even ready to tackle "the attendance problem", co-opting several suggestions he spent years dismissing when voiced by "undesirables":
I'd like to see the team get a bit more creative with regard to enticing fans back to the ballpark... I would love a deal with the light rail, whereby a Diamondbacks ticket is also valid for a ride to/from the park... I'd also like to see dropping of single-game prices....There's nothing like a full stadium.... hopefully it's something which we will see more of in the future.

Sound familiar? What happened to pronouncements it would take a generation, at least, before any FO could consistently draw more fans here? And how can one credibly complain about single game rates and fees and premium pricing today, after consistently endorsing Derrick Hall's "lowest prices in baseball" mantra since 2007?

Fangtastic

2010-08-10T22:01:00.020-07:00

After association football likened itself The Beautiful Game, maybe baseball's 2011 All Star embarrasment-in-the-making should adopt a less showy monicker.

The Invisible Game.

It seems shy and retiring MLB isnt showcasing it's midsummer ... well.... showcase ...this year. Derrick Hall all but confirmed his New York masters nixed his understated plan to plaster every inch of Chase Field and FSN broadcasts with this fang-tastic image.

But even MLB cant stop desperate men from talking. Certainly not Hall's goons, who a mere day after season renewal hikes were mailed, glibly asserted that July's atmosphere will be "no different" than that surrounding Glendale's 2008 Super Bowl. Really?

Set aside for a moment this sheepishly promoted time bomb might not even take place in Arizona. If it does, the scope and utility of festivities will pale next to any Super Bowl run up. Fewer visitors spending far less money, cursing the hottest temperatures of any North American city (instead of reveling in our fantastic Super Bowl weather). Oh, and there could be racially charged political demonstrations heating up our capital's already bubbling asphalt streets. Love the economic boost there.

Hall lobbied tirelessly for this "privilege" of feting MLB's summerfest under the most inhospitable natural (and now, man made) circumstances imaginable. His once healthy PR reputation might be resuscitated, if only a few die from heat stroke or street violence, or if nobody sees it, on what amounts to a ponderously controlled three day TV commercial.

So, what does MLB's timid advertising withdrawal signify at this juncture? It doesnt necessarily mean the game's moving. At the very least, though, it suggests MLB views national attitudes toward Arizona as problematic, and most likely fluid. Otherwise, they would've already left. Curtailing promotion is the early hedge of bigwigs who recognize costs to defiantly staying and costs with ceremoniously pulling out - and they're too afraid, or perhaps wise, to do either right now. They'd prefer developing circumstance make the decision for them.

And it probably will. For now, they are curators of The Invisible Game.

Puppet Show

2010-08-08T19:30:00.022-07:00

It's pretty evident Gonzo benefited from PEDS. No clean player in history enjoyed such a late career power transformation. I dont think that makes him a pariah, necessarily, or all that unusual among contemporaries - nor does it negate earlier franchise glory, within such a broadly corrupted sport.

But if I was Kendrick, blustering about the game's old fashioned virtues whenever it suits me, I might think twice before eagerly tatooing '20' on the stadium next to Jackie Robinson. The same owner who planted "whispers" about Gonzo before contract negotiations, today cant fill seats with his own whisper of a team. So a compromised Kendrick finally adopts the popular WS hero to nudge ahead of the Nats and Reds in attendance - subordinating pious PED 'principle' to profit.

By all accounts, it was a welcome event for a near sellout throng, who paid premium rates to send off Gonzalez for the twenty ninth or thirtieth time. Ah, the joys of club sponsored, canned "tributes". Some say it signals a change of policy, or even of heart. Diamondhacks isnt so sure. We bristled when these stewards actively erased our heritage, and yes, we're complaining now when they embrace it. Because timing and track record are everything.

Gonzo's well attended and, let's face it, long underdue, honor is the latest in a string of puppet shows manipulated by Kendrick and Derrick Hall. It's what you dish out when you cant deliver the real thing. Dolls, puppets, cheap mass produced reproductions. Wide screen reruns of a distant World Series, co-opted by Kendrick after years of sneering at everything associated with it.

It's early August and we're already waist deep in increasingly dubious bobbleheads, which are plastic (formerly ceramic) puppets. Daron Sutton's oleaginous bidding and spasmodic theatrics evoke puppetry of a different kind. AJ Hinch was a figurative puppet. Ungainly characters in the ill conceived "Legends Race" are, literally, puppets. This entire organizational cast is inflated and painted for the show, yet relatively hollow inside.

Ironically, Luis Gonzalez seems to be the most human character among them. Fifty thousand came out to say so. To affirm that even with his wooden cliches and the spectre of steroids dancing overhead, something about Gonzalez is still more real and worthwhile than anything the current organization has to offer.

Endless Summer

2010-08-05T09:14:00.009-07:00

On a day Carlos Gonzalez hit two home runs, and Edwin Jackson solidified the White Sox' hold on first place, the Dbacks lost to the Washington Nationals, before the smallest crowd (15670) in Chase Field history. Eight of the nine smallest crowds in franchise history have now materialized in the last few months.

At the two thirds mark, Arizona is on pace to lose 102 games. They should finish better than that, but are sixteen games out. Not from first place. Sixteen games from fourth place. Looking ahead, Dan Haren and Max Scherzer try to propel contending teams forward. Followed by tomorrow, and the next day...and the next.

Update 8/6: Haren yielded ten hits last night and hasnt won for the Angels yet - despite an ERA under three.

Like our Dbacks, San Diego is unseasonably cool this summer, and it feels good. A thick marine layer lingers past noon most days, affording longer, brisker walks with the wife, without the usual bake and sweat. In the afternoons, our son and I body surf in the Pacific with the occasional "dolphin". They're thirty yards out, with large dorsal fins and the real estate agents all call them dolphins. Whatever. I'll be home Saturday, swimming safely with accumulated carob leaves in my own backyard pool.

More On Salary Dumps

I dont object to redistributing 2011 payroll. I have a problem reducing our chances of contending - and I think you do that swapping Haren and Ed Jackson for Joe Saunders and Hudson, even if some money can be applied elsewhere. It's almost as if the Dbacks thought process was as follows:

1. Our biggest competitive liability is pitching.
2. Haren and Jackson represent our largest financial liability among pitchers.
3. Neither Haren nor Jackson were good 2010 values.
4. Therefore, trading Haren and Jackson makes us more efficient (ie dedicated payroll) and flexible (future expenditures).

But failure to meet 2010 expectations doesnt resign either workhorse to fall short of 2011 expectations or preclude either from being an attractive contractual value going forward. Both are recent All Stars. Haren's got a high BABIP and strong peripherals, suggesting he could enjoy a significant "comeback" year. Jackson is more erratic, but a terrific athlete with a powerful, durable arm.

We didnt need to dump their contracts. We needed to optimize their talents by dumping organizational obstacles; namely a toxic manager, a subpar defensive catching tandem, immature offense, below average defense and a disturbingly ineffective pitching coach. Haren and Jackson were underutilized (if not outright squandered) by a dysfunctional organization.

If their careers deteriorate, Saunders maintains and Hudson develops, it'll be fortuitous - but if Haren recaptures most or all of his consistent mojo, he's virtually irreplaceable at $12M on the open market. Guys who throw 200 innings at 30% above league average run prevention are valuable and rare.

Finally, welcome to four new readers who just dont get it, inexplicably voting for Joe Saunders in our latest poll! Friendly reminder: Diamondhacks is a haven from that sort of thing.

Fans Sold Down The River

2010-07-31T09:04:00.024-07:00

Splat.

CEO Derrick Hall's 'championship-style' team just whooshed outta river city faster than Tempe Town Lake... and it smells just as bad. I'm outta town myself and havent had a chance to read up on all the transactions, but just skimming quickly I believe we still have Enright and Fatburger.

What's the goal here? What competitive standard is this FO to be measured by in 2011, if they insist on lowering the bar again and again? Is it to legitimately contend next year or simply "be better than" this year's 100 loss monstrosity? If the latter, count me out. In an era of well managed worst to first turnarounds, spurred by revenue sharing and NL mediocrity, "improving" on a 100 loss season isnt a serious goal worth getting behind.

Look, I get the intrinsic logic of swapping current value for futures when your current season is hopelessly lost, but excepting the fluky blip of 2007, this team has stunk going on seven years straight - due in no small part to the sustained incompetence of the same charlatans now asking us to be patient.

First they blamed Colangelo, then Backman, then Shawn Green and greedy Gonzo, then Seitzer and other hitting coaches, then luck, then injuries, then Melvin. Then AJ needed a full year under his belt to be fairly evaluated, he got that, and then they blamed him. They blamed the fans for not "understanding" the challenges of putting together a winner in this market; the one in which the Suns, Mercury, Cardinals, Rattlers and even Coyotes have recently crafted winners.

As recently as last year, Hall suggested the organization was doing everything right off the field - it just needed to turn things around on it. Yet we've since learned of massive front office disconnects, behind the curtain as it were. Earlier this summer, Hall opined we had a "championship-style" team. Last week he insisted we werent "rebuilding" and wouldnt trade both Haren and Jackson.

Maybe it's time to finally expose the "man behind the curtain", lest there be more carnage.

How can remaining fans endorse this never ending circle of disingenuous deflection, designed to enable the fortune of Ken Kendrick more than the foreseeable competitive fortunes of a ballclub?

Swelterers, Mormons in Dead Heat at Chase

2010-07-30T10:05:00.006-07:00

Who goes to Diamondback games anymore?

Diamondhacks readers have voted and there's a tie for our largest ballpark demographic, between "people without air conditioning" and "impressionable members of five goliath Mormon families".

New poll at right >>>

We're Not In Phoenix Anymore

2010-07-28T13:45:00.009-07:00

Went to the Big A last night, with the Red Sox in town. Missed Haren by a day. It didnt sell out, but I guess Boston visits Anaheim each year (vs once a decade in Phoenix) and it was a Tuesday night. Plus there were no Wiggles.

Nonetheless, 40,000 and a fun buzz around the park. The loudest cheers greeted Red Sox hits, just like @ The Lovely Morgan, so why fret that Phoenix has uniquely inept fans? We're an inept state full of inept people, but we're not an inept fan base. The Angels perennially contend and have been around half a century - and they were outnumbered, or at least outbellowed on this night.

Ticket prices are high. Concession prices are generally high too, but you can still get a $3 hot dog and it's cheaper than Disneyland next door. Excellent food variety, and there's plenty of good places to eat outside the park. Centralized parking was only $8 and very well staffed and organized. Getting in and out was a breeze, impressive considering the crowd. Inside the park, they let you stand behind a red line (pictured) to watch the game from anywhere on the concourse. Fan friendly, unlike Phoenix where they shoo you to "keep moving" like you're a vagrant instead of a customer.

Most fans, on both sides, wore jerseys. These are younger, "lifestyle" fans who buy team gear and pay higher ticket prices for the game and the beer guzzlin' scene. Everyone gushes over Moreno's $7 hats, but he's hardly the low margin saint he's often made out to be. The vast array of merchandise leans pricey - yet moves quickly. You dont see racks of unsold Eric Byrnes or Tony Pena shirts in the Team Shop. It all looks new, fresh and, most importantly, people want it. Outstanding women's selection; stuff young women feel they look good in- and for the most part, they do. It's hip to be an Angels fan.

The impetus isnt really marketing, however. First, Moreno intelligently invested in exciting, successful teams that people wanted to identify with, then merchandise fell into place. The Diamondbacks havent bothered much with the first step, opting instead to inundate fans with the incessant promise of a brand backed up by unrealized potential and increasingly broad incompetence.

All MLB outfits "try" to win and promote their brand, but franchises prioritize goals differently, based on competitive circumstances and owner's subjective response to those. Winning simply isnt Ken Kendrick's priority. It's a desire, like nibbling on a woman's ear, or fudge. His first priority is, and always has been, to "get his money back" from Colangelo, as evidenced by low risk/low return investment in a revenue protected (ie shared) environment and Kendrick's methodical consolidation of franchise share.

Alright, alright. Back to the game.

The Angels made all sorts of mistakes - they threw to a wrong base and ran themselves out of a couple innings. They're eight back of the Rangers. Maybe this wont be their year. But there's a feeling of excitement at the ballpark. A feeling that they can do it, or at least make it very interesting. We dont feel that in Phoenix, and not just this year and last. Even when we lurked near the division lead in September (2005) and later, actually won the division (2007), hope seemed unusually tempered by a foreboding, almost as if we didnt deserve to win. As if we were lucky or didnt quite belong.

Angels fans feel like they belong. They feel like if they make a bad play or have a bad game, that they'll come back strong tomorrow. That Scioscia, and up in the boardroom, Moreno, will make things right. Somehow, and sooner rather than later.

**********
Sorry this is so poorly edited with no links, but am on the road with an unusually nasty head cold, bad back and my battery is running out at an internet cafe.

Good times!!!

About Town

2010-07-23T23:35:00.004-07:00

Derrick Hall's working overtime, preempting chatter that the looming Haren deal is a rebuild or salary dump. I would feel better if he was working overtime actually ensuring the sort of "A+" deal he's publicly fantasized about. Or working at something he's more experienced at - like looking really concerned when a spectator is hit with a foul ball.

Sweeping the Mets was nice, prompting someone named Cash Kruth over at mlb.com, to call Arizona one of the hottest teams in baseball. According to Bill James' formula, the Mets sweep made us the tenth hottest team in the NL, tied with Pittsburgh. You decide.

The Diamondbacks dipped below the 2 million attendance pace tonight, for the first time this season. Not an easy thing to do on a Friday night.

Is Gibby turning it around? It's too early to tell, but the answer is No.

Back to Haren. Is the goal for next year to merely "get better" or is it go to the playoffs? An important distinction when this year's team projects to lose 95 to 100 games. You can get better than that just by breathing, cant you? Cobble together a cheap, merely bad bullpen. That's a huge improvement right there. Spend a couple hundred thousand on any pitching coach not named Mel. Why, you've skyrocketed up to 75 wins.

Going to the playoffs is harder, and the question becomes, Are you more likely to do that with Dan Haren or a staff anchored by people you get in exchange for Dan Haren?

It can go either way, but the key word above is "likely"and the short answer is "Haren." I'm off to San Diego for a couple weeks, so the long answer will have to wait, but basically the Diamondbacks' primary impetus for this trade is not to get better in 2011. They'd like to get better and will try to get better, certainly, but the driving factor in all this is that they'd prefer not to pay Dan Haren. The driving factor of the opposite clubs, like the Yankees, is winning. Neither bodes well for Arizona's contending chances in 2011.

In local news, the valley's largest body of water vanished a couple nights ago. Seriously, a billion gallons...gone. Whoosh.

I hope the same cant be said of 2011.

It's Official (again): Melvin A Winner!

2010-07-20T15:18:00.016-07:00

Results of our just closed poll, inquiring whose image has benefited most from Kendrick & Hall's mounting malfeasance?

1. Bob Melvin 62%

2(t) Jeff Moorad 37%

2(t) Jerry Colangelo 37%

4. Bryan Price 8%

5. AJ Hinch 0%

*******************
(poll percentages total more than 100, due to the absence of statistical principles)

*******************

I'm a little surprised no one took the bait, voting AJ, seeing how the team's reeling even moreso after his absence. ( Maybe readers know something I dont)

as always, thanks for voting!!!

New Poll now open (at right) >>>>

I'm fascinated by who trudges out to the ballpark these days. Just 18,253 yesterday (paid, not actual); the smallest number ever to buy tickets to see the Mets here - and fewer still who actually showed up.

Expect some bump tonight, however, from the Cullen Maxey bobbleheads.

When You Wish Upon A Star

2010-07-19T18:33:00.011-07:00

What went wrong? How did the Diamondbacks collapse so convincingly, beneath an entire division? One could write a book. A chapter on the bullpen. Another on strikeouts. Several more sourcing front office hubris and conceit.

For now, let's contrast preseason expectations with what happened on the field. in 2010. Most projected this team around .500, usually a bit under. Behind Colorado and LA, but clearly ahead of the Padres. The lineup looked to outhit 2009, perhaps dramatically, but run prevention concerns lingered.

On the player level, instead of grading every single man, I've identified those whose established levels of performance have consistently driven wins in the past. This would certainly include:

Dan Haren
Brandon Webb
Justin Upton
Mark Reynolds
Adam Laroche
Miguel Montero

...and maybe Edwin Jackson, based on a projected IP approaching 200.

Other talents (ie Drew, CY and Kelly Johnson) may provide better value right now, but subpar 2009 seasons spurred spring doubts as to whether they still had it.

How did our elite preseason seven fare on the field? They uniformly disappointed - and represent a significant collective bust. Webb and Montero were injured when the season unraveled. Haren has been less effective than Doug Davis, circa 2007-2009, in terms of ERA. Reynolds and Upton improved defensively, but were staggering situational ciphers in the middle of the lineup as the season slipped away. Laroche, the notoriously slow starter, currently sits 20% below his 3 year OPS+ average. Edwin Jackson's ERA is a tick below 5, despite a no-hitter and transfering from the better league with the DH.

In summary, none of our top seven guys met (let alone, exceeded) their established level of performance. Not one. Adding a Qualls/Gutierrez hybrid as an eighth heavily relied upon component (remember, this is in terms of preseason expectations), and our expectations gap of our elit players grows exceedingly gruesome.

This is how a solid bounceback year from Young and admirable efforts from Ian Kennedy and Rodrigo Lopez were sabotaged, and how the team has fallen apart despite those contributions. The high profile players who typically move the W/L needle, didnt contribute enough for this team to win. Actual vs expected results range from huge (Webb) to relatively minor (Laroche), but the problem is that all these critical results point in the same direction.

Down.

When Webb, Haren, Upton and Reynolds struggle, it hardly matters that Aaron Heilman and Kelly Johnson have been productive. When Ed Jackson cant pickup a faltering Haren, who in turn cant hold a candle to a healthy Webb, it doesnt matter much what Ian Kennedy does.

The expected stars, the guys in their physical primes who (with the exception of Webb) played very well in 2009, arent playing as well now. Random variation, or regression, may help explain generic decline from excellent results, but this is such a widespread failing of quality players - who've recently posted superior seasons - that I wonder if it doesnt reflect on how the organization manages established talent.

There's been endless talk about how they dont develop young talent aching to make it in the majors. But it seems to me that this roster is more accurately characterized as guys who have made it in the majors, by one standard or another, and who were unable to sustain that value in 2010.

**********************

When You Wish Upon A Star - from Disney's Pinocchio. Louis Armstrong, trumpet, vocals

My Mother, The Plagiarist?

2010-07-18T21:40:00.002-07:00

Two women in my life share connections with the late George Steinbrenner, however it should be made clear, for tax purposes, that neither was a shipping magnate, nor contributed to Nixon.

My wife grew up, in and around Columbus, Ohio, and like the Yankee kingpin attended Ohio State. Nothing earthshattering there. He was a grad student a generation before she arrived - and one in five Americans seem to have enrolled in that vaguely fascist institution at one time or another. I guess, the more I reflect on it, my better half can also be a hard charging, perfectionist pain in the ass. So there's that similarity as well.

Parallels between my genteel mother, seventy nine years today, and The Boss are more curious. He attended Williams College in the sparsely populated, extreme northwestern corner of Massachussets. Just a few miles north, over the Vermont border, my mom simultaneously studied at Bennington. He graduated in 1952, she in 53. They were both English majors. The curious part? They each wrote a senior thesis examining figures in Thomas Hardy novels.

The Price of Loyalty

2010-07-14T18:22:00.026-07:00

Not 24 hours after Anaheim's "day in the sun" went dark, reports are trickling in about 25% price hikes @ Chase Field, presumably tied to the ephemeral 2011 All Star Game. Dback brass have yet to confirm the regular season increases, but loyal season ticket holders are understandably livid.

Consecutive last place, non-competitive seasons. Most signs point to Kendrick further slashing payroll into 2011. Knowledgeable Keith Law surmises this ownership group wont contend "anytime soon". Employment and personal income are down in the Valley, and Derrick Hall's "fan friendliest" front office is raising prices? Again.

On azcentral.com, two presumable package holders report that their account reps informed them a pair of "Infield Reserve" uppers will increase $332 annually, when the invoice arrives later in August. For them, that's a 25% increase. An extortion tax, apparently, for the privilege of getting in line to buy ASG tickets - at MLB's All Star prices.

With seasonal attendance dwindling, this is how Derrick Hall rewards his most loyal fans? Stick with us, he implored, even while our product disintegrates. We're in this together, he cheerfully implied. Then, at the nadir of public confidence in franchise stewardship, he slams a $332 cover charge on his most price sensitive loyalists?

Stop and think who buys upper deck season tickets to watch the Diamondbacks. These arent corporations and law firms. I did meet an MD up there once, but for the most part they're teachers, tow truck drivers and customer service reps, who breathe baseball and suffer with the team. Many bring their own food to the game. These are the fans stuck with an ultimatum, courtesy of Derrick Hall and Ken Kendrick:

We've strung you along for years with the hype of a made-for-TV All Star Game, that is rapidly losing appeal, and which still may never materialize in Phoenix.
You've supported us through the bad times. We dont really care if you purchase expensive ASG tickets or not. That's a separate issue. Just be a good fan and go write us another check for three hundred bucks, or you can kiss your season tickets goodbye.
Sincerely,
The New Diamondbacks Family
P.S. - We're building a championship team, just for you. Dont miss out!

Num-bah One, Bob Shepp-urd.....Num-bah One

2010-07-12T13:17:00.041-07:00

New York imparts abundant magic upon little boys lucky enough to grow up there. The tinkling music of Good Humor trucks and mobile, miniature ferris wheels signaling children along our narrow Brooklyn street. I remember my mother picking me up early from kindergarten to see the Statue of Liberty, or the breathtaking blue whale suspended from the ceiling of the American Museum of Natural History.

It is not an exaggeration to say that Bob Sheppard was one of those magical things about the city, equally melodious and mysterious to a child. Sheppard, along with Madison Square Garden fixture John Condon, elevated concrete venues into civilized cathedrals, with their charming authority and, in Sheppard's case, an unusual economy of expression.

There was a solemn dignity inherent to Yankee Stadium that Shea never approached, and Bob Sheppard had a lot to do with that. It's awkward, even unseemly, to label him an "in game host", after enduring the likes of Chase Field's Mike and Vanessa, but that's what he was. And much like a party's tone reflects its host, so to with a ballgame. The worst parties are when the homeowner tries to sell you something, like Amway or a timeshare. Sheppard was like the retired millionaire with the nicest house in town, who'd politely greet you, ask that you make yourself at home - and then leave you to mingle and enjoy yourselves.

He respected fans; their intellect, sensibilities and their time. People roll their eyes when New Yorkers talk about the "voice of God" - and understandably so. There's no need to deify Sheppard's mannered good taste. But he honored the names of all players equally, regardless of the player's uniform, ethnicity or standing in the game, and there was something unconditional and regal about that. He clearly told you what you needed to know and added nothing that you didnt. His deliberate monotone gave time and space for energy to swell from it's rightful birthplace - the grandstands.

As kids, we didnt know the PA guys' names, nor did we need to. We just knew that when you settled into your seat at the Stadium (or Condon's Garden), you were the privileged house guests of gracious adults. And you were definitely in New York.

On cement diamonds and grassy backyard whiffleball fields from Danbury to the Jersey shore, we all imitated the invisible Sheppard.

Now batting......for the Port Chester Bisons..... Number 4....
BIL-ly... CUTH-bert......................Number 4.

We'd mimic him again and again, until dusk, when everyone trudged separately home for supper, followed by the real Yankee game on WPIX. After that, in quiet bathrooms and bedrooms across the tri-state area, little boys in their pajamas squinted at medicine cabinet and bedside mirrors, and whispered that voice once more, just before bedtime, as if to make dreams official.

Now bat-ting...for the YAN-kees....NUM-buh 1....the GRAY-tist play-uh of all tiiime....CEN-tah field-ah.....[insert boy's name here].....[insert crowd cheers]......... NUM-buh One.

His was an adult voice, conveying a mysterious, dignified magic, that spoke to the child in all of us.

Maxey Bobblehead Fast Tracked

2010-07-11T09:14:00.016-07:00

A Cullen Maxey bobblehead, originally conceived for distribution in 2015 , has been reslated for a week from Tuesday, according to a highly placed team source:

The fans love what Cullen's done for the organization and this is a way we can give back and recognize that relationship. We expect a big turnout.

Maxey, Executive Vice President-Business Operations, re-formulated the Arizona Diamondbacks corporate partnerships strategies during the 2007 season and has seen unprecedented growth with a 33 percent increase to the team's sponsorship revenues over the last two seasons (2007-08) after an organizational decision to reduce marketing clutter throughout the ballpark and dedicating his staff to developing rewarding relationships with the club's corporate partners.

He leads the organization's corporate partnerships initiatives to further strengthen relationships with team sponsors as well as develop innovative ideas to bring additional business to the team. In addition, Maxey oversees the club's ticket sales, communications, marketing, creative services, broadcasting, game operations, fan services, community affairs and spring training efforts. Under his direction in 2008, the marketing team launched new strategies for increasing weekend attendance with Fireworks Friday's, premium item giveaways each Saturday, and Kid's Sunday's. The club created a partnership with local media outlets to promote each promotional night and experienced measurable attendance growth during those games.
- (source: dbacks.com)

About Town

2010-07-09T13:46:00.012-07:00

Phoenix is implementing parking fees in its popular hiking preserves. Last fall, I started walking from home to my closest mountain range, partly to avoid parking issues, and will continue to, after the weather cools down. It's a better workout and a richer overall experience when I get out of the car.

What's wrong with Dback leadership and organizational structure? Tom Krasovic at AOL Fanhouse provides several compelling insights. (Hat tip: kishi/snakebytes).

Looking for a fresh new measure of bullpen badness? How about our best reliever, Aaron Heilman ( 11o era+; 30+ IP) is worse than the Padres worst reliever (Mujica 121 era+). Yeah, that's already park adjusted. Ouch.
Franchise low attendance last night -16664. Should we remind Derrick Hall that "school's out"? Seasonally, he's slightly ahead of 2005's attendance trough, but only because most windfall draws (ie Yankees, Cardinals twice, Cubs) have already visited. Maybe with Strasburg and some bobbleheads, they'll keep pace with the 05 nadir.

The Cubs barely drew 20K here recently, which reflects the local malaise, but also Cub fans' conditional support for their team at the turnstiles. Apart from an entrenched binge-drinking scene at Wrigley disguised as fan loyalty, Chicagoans are frontrunners pretty much like everywhere else.

Been out of town for a spell, so still havent witnessed a so called "Legends Race", but fans seemed turned off for several reasons. Mark Grace, who never placed in the NL MVP's top dozen finishers, is a "legend"? Why? Does he have a big dick or something? As if that mystery isnt enough to further shrink franchise prestige, Derrick's misguided marketers continue to exploit Steve Bartman for cheap laughs.

You may recall the nerdy Cubs 'superfan' who actually apologized to media fueled mobs for trying to catch a foul ball in the stands - and who absorbed mountains of unwarranted abuse (incl death threats requiring police protection for his family)? Any baseball club with an ounce of class would leave that guy alone.

Best Kirk Gibson quote, and I'm paraphrasing:

I'd rather have a bunch of bad ballplayers who win, than good players who dont.

Probably stole it, but a clever, effective way to convey priorities. I cant imagine a 'new school' development guy like AJ saying that. Alas, Gibson is 2-5

Chris Young snuck onto the All Star team as the Dbacks' required rep. Even though there are more deserving outfielders, Young's is still a nice comeback story. Congratulations on perservering, Chris. Just dont think you really deserved it.

Speaking of All Star Games, it's currently 110 degrees outside, in the shade. Can hardly wait for the glorious 2011 AS weekend Derrick and MLB have planned for "the fans". A hundred and thirty on the pavement. Angry protesters surrounding the venue. Reluctant players and coaches. This should be a huge boon for the city. Bravo to Bud Selig and Bud Lite. We can tell you have both the fans' and game's best interests at heart.